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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 1-20-23

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
Price Summary table
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 4-Year price deciles Normal & Redistributed

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Fundamentals & weather

Spot month settled lower Thursday for a 2nd straight day amid another meager storage withdrawal, weak heating demand, strong output and no further confirmation of a Freeport restart.   The Feb contract settled 3.6 cents lower at $3.275.

 

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The EIA reported an 82 BCF draw for the week ended Jan 13, leaving total gas in storge at 2.82 TCF.  The draw was slightly more than half the 5 yr avg pull of 156 BCF and well below last year’s draw of 203 BCF.  Stocks are now at a 34 BCF surplus to the 5 yr avg and are just 19 BCF below last year. Another modest pull relative to normal is expected in next week’s report.

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Production for January has averaged 98 BCF/day, 3 BCF/day higher than last January while above normal temps across much of the US has dampened heating demand.  Total demand month to date is running nearly 16 BCF/day lower than last year while also trending lower than the 5 yr avg.  Weather forecasts continue calling for colder conditions during the last week of the month which should cause an uptick in demand.  

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Prices are currently trading higher on the day following an overnight increase to HDD projections for next week.
Longer range patterns for the first half of Feb however trended slightly warmer.  If cold doesn’t prove to be as plentiful or enduring as expected, any price rallies will be short lived to non-existent.  
Technical Analysis
 
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After losing 3.170 or 48% over the past four weeks, the spot February 23 contract is down another 4.2% in this week’s trade after closing Thursday at 3.275.

The 78% retracement support of the June 2020-August 2022 uptrend was broken this week at 3.320 which turns the final 88% retracement at 2.465 into the next area of support.

It is interesting to note that although prices have been in a steep decile for five consecutive weeks, daily RSI is at 30.05, still above the level considered “oversold” suggesting further downside price action.

Although 2022 was an exception, a post-winter seasonal low was set over the previous six years during the months of February (3 years) or March (3 years).  

10 day moving average resistance is at 3.540 today.  There has not been a single close above this average since December 16th.

Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bearish

Relative Strength Index – 30.05

Seasonal Pricing
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Forward Curve Pricing
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