

Feb nat gas plunged lower on Friday, ending its 3 day rally as profit taking ensued amid a more mild outlook for late January. Physical prices however surged for the long weekend as a polar vortex was set to move across the eastern US beginning Sunday. Low’s were expected to fall below zero across many cities while boosting heating demand to well above normal levels. Price action on Friday suggested the market had already factored in the cold. Feb futures settled Friday’s trade with a 31 cent loss at $3.948.

Total demand surged this weekend to a high of 184.9 BCF/day. Today’s consumption level is estimated at 184.1 BCF/day, up 53.4 BCF/day from Friday. Res/comm usage is accounting for 70.4 BCF/day of demand with power burn estimated at 48.5 BCF/day. Demand will remain strong this week before falling back towards 135 BCF/day during the 8-14 day period.
Lost production due to freeze offs weren’t quite as high as feared over the long weekend. Freeze offs were estimated at 6 to 8 BCF/day versus expectations of 10 BCF/day. This is helping spot prices retreat today after soaring over the weekend. Output fell to 99.6 BCF/day on Sunday and is estimated at 97.9 BCF/day for today. This is down from Friday’s level of 103.4 BCF/day.

Prices continue lower this morning as the latest forecasts show relief from the cold as we head into February. Expectations for massive withdrawals ahead however will compete with more moderate forecasts, setting the stage for increased volatility.
Technical Analysis

The February 25 natural gas contract began last week’s trade with spike up to a new two-year high at 4.369 before selling back off.
Another rally attempt on Thursday reached a 4.328 high before selling back off on Friday to end the week at 3.948. For the week, the February contract was down .041, settling Friday just over 10 day moving average support.
A potentially bearish dark cloud cover candlestick formed on last week’s weekly bar. Bearish divergences have also formed on the daily RSI index and the short term trend following index.
10 day moving average support was broken on Monday with the February contract settling at 3.830, down .118.
With 10 day moving average support broken on Monday, the trend may be ready to turn back down.
Monday’s 3.759 low is near term support followed by the 40 day moving average currently at 3.535.
The 10 day moving average is now near term resistance at 3.920 with long term resistance at last week’s 4.369 high.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index -53.11






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