

Nat gas futures advanced Wednesday as the market priced in further supply/demand tightening as evidenced by storage withdrawal expectations. Estimates for the upcoming 2 storage reports suggest supplies could fall by a net 561 BCF, which compares bullishly to the 5 yr avg comparisons. This leaves Jan 2025 on track for a record high draw from storage. Feb futures settled 20.4 cents higher at $3.96.

Nat gas production has rebounded from Monday’s low of 98.7 BCF/day, which occurred as a result of freeze offs. Output this morning is estimated at 99 BCF/day, up from yesterday’s 97.6 BCF/day. Production levels should continue to improve back above 100 BCF/day over the next 2 weeks.
Today’s storage report is expected to show stocks fell by a much larger than normal 244 BCF last week as extreme cold boosted demand. The estimate falls below last year’s pull of 277 BCF but is well above the 5 yr avg pull of 167 BCF. If correct, stocks would fall to 2.871 TCF, leaving supplies unchanged from the 5 yr avg.
Given this week’s arctic blast, early estimates for the week ending Jan 24 suggest an even larger withdrawal near 317 BCF. This compares to the 5 yr avg decline of 189 BCF.

Flows are set to increase at Freeport LNG after going offline on Tuesday because of intermittent power outages. Flows to Freeport are reportedly on track to reach 0.5 BCF/day today, up from near zero Tuesday and Wednesday. Total feedgas demand is expected to reach 11.8 BCF/day today, up 0.2 BCF/day but still well below the month to date avg of 14.7 BCF/day.
Prices are currently trading higher ahead of this morning's storage report.
Technical Analysis

A bullish reversal in mid-morning trade on Wednesday as the spot February 25 contract overcame early weakness to rally higher into the close while erasing two days of losses.
After bottoming at a 3.711 low on Wednesday, nearly the same level it bottomed the previous session, the February contract reversed course back higher into close settling the day at 3.960, up .204 (5.4%).
Volume was unimpressive at 128,783 contracts, a 1-month low, which likely indicates short-covering was behind much of yesterday’s rally.
4.000 is once again resistance followed by last week’s 4.369 high.
The 10 day moving average is at 3.970 today followed by 3.711 weekly low support.
Longer term support is the 40 day moving average currently at 3.565.
Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index -55.95






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