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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 1-26-23

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
Price Summary table
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 4-Year price deciles Normal & Redistributed

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Fundamentals & weather

Shrugging off near term forecasts showing much colder temps next week, nat gas prices continued to sink in yesterday’s trade.  Selling continued as this market remains focused on mild weather month to date, robust production and growing supply.  The Feb contract lost another 19.1 cents to settle at $3.067 while the Mar contract fell 14.2 cents to settle at $2.915.

 

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Storage levels have been falling at a much lower than normal pace, allowing stocks to achieve a small surplus.  This trend will continue in today’s inventory report as estimates are well below historical levels.  For the week ended Jan 13, stocks are seen falling 82 BCF.  This compares to last year’s draw of 217 BCF and the 5 yr avg pull of 185 BCF.  By October, analysts are now calling for storage levels to approach a 5 yr high near 4 TCF.  

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Since recovering from a late Dec freeze off, output levels have been consistently registering near 95 BCF/day which is close record highs.  While a slowdown in production could arise if current pricing holds, there are no signs of one as of yet.  Output is currently at 97.2 BCF/day where it is expected to remain over the next 2 weeks. 

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Prices continue their selloff this morning as next week’s cold will be followed by a warm up during the 11-15 day period.  
Technical Analysis
 
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Natural gas prices are on course for a 5th consecutive lower weekly close as prices fell to a new 19-month low on Wednesday.  For the day, the spot February 23 contract was down .191 (5.9%) closing at 3.067.

Price are down sharply again today with the spot contract trading under the 3.000 handle for the first time since May 2021.

The final 88% retracement of the June 2020-August 2022 uptrend at 2.465 is the next downside objective.

Over the past 7 years, 6 post-winter seasonal lows have been set during the months of February (3 years) or March (3 years).  4 of the 6 years’ price lows have been near 2.500.  This low historically has been the low price point for the year.

10 day moving average resistance is at 3.305 today.

Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bearish

Relative Strength Index – 29.04

Seasonal Pricing
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Forward Curve Pricing
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