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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 1-5-24

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
StoneX Value Matrix
image 87144
Source: StoneX Value Matrix, Bloomberg
StoneX Market Indicator
image 87145
Source:  StoneX Market Indicator, Bloomberg
Fundamentals & Weather

The nat gas market recorded another strong day Thursday as forecasters maintained their outlook for much colder weather over the next few weeks. Prices fell briefly following an extremely bearish storage report however those losses faded quickly. The Feb contract settled Thursday’s trade up 15.3 cents at $2.821.

image 87147
Source: Bloomberg, CME

The EIA reported an exceptionally smaller than normal withdrawal for the week ended Dec 29 as modest demand limited the need to pull from storage.  Stocks fell by only 14 BCF last week versus estimates for a 40 BCF pull, leaving total supply at 3.476 TCF.  The 5 yr avg surplus widened to 399 BCF while the year over year surplus grew to 553 BCF.  The bearish draw included a surprise 14 BCF injection in the South Central region. The next 3 storage reports are expected to come in very strong as conditions turn much colder.  

image 87146
Source: Bloomberg, EIA

Demand levels this week have been climbing as colder weather has arrived in major consuming regions. Res/comm usage is up 9.9 BCF/day week over week while gas fired power demand is up about 2.7 BCF/day from last week.  As a result, withdrawal estimates for the week ending Jan 5 currently range from 116 BCF to 137 BCF.  This compares to an 11 BCF injection last year.

We are also seeing a rebound in LNG feedgas demand after falling to 14.2 BCF/day on Wednesday.  Feedgas demand is coming in this morning at 15 BCF/day.

​​image 87148
Source: NOAA
Prices are giving back some of yesterday’s gains today despite forecasts undergoing colder changes overnight. 
Trends turned colder in the NW and Rockies while turning warmer in the Midwest and South.  An Arctic air mass is expected to plunge into the NW, Rockies and Plains by the end of next week.  Prior to the cold, much to strong above normal temps are expected in the East thru Jan 14. 
 
Technical Analysis
image 87149
Source: Bloomberg, CME

The spot February 24 natural gas contract has gained .253 (9.9%) over the past two sessions including a .152 (5.7%) gain on Thursday as it closed the day at 2.821.

Roughly half the past two day’s gains have been erased in today’s early trade as the February has been heavily sold in the overnight session.

Yesterday’s rally reached a 2.863 high holding just under primary resistance at the 2.930-2.940 level which includes the 50% retracement resistance of the October-December downtrend as well as former trend line support broken in early-December on the daily continuation chart.

While prices are down today, the near term trend remains sideways to higher with 2.930-2.940 remaining primary resistance.  This resistance should eventually be retested in upcoming trade.  If it holds, the trend should turn back lower toward typical post-winter seasonal weakness.

10 and 200 day moving average support is at 2.615-2.620 today and should a strong support area if reached.

Longer term, weakness into the February-March time frame is expected as the market sets a post-winter seasonal low.

Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish 
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Relative Strength Index – 52.79

Seasonal Prices
image 87152
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 87150
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 87151
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 87036
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 87035
Source: Bloomberg, CME
Forward Curve Pricing
image 87153
Source: Bloomberg, CME
 
Disclaimer

The StoneX Market Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  Each factor is quantified by comparing data for the current period versus last year, versus the previous period, versus its history and versus the yearly average.  This quantification is converted to a number and summed together. The sum of all factors are reweighted by the 4-year decile of its history. The 4-year deciles redistribute the StoneX Market Indicator to obtain an equal share between the bullish and the bearish signals.  The StoneX Market Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.

The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing 4 years historical price data distributed into 10 deciles.  All of the years are weighted at 20% with the exception of the most recent year which is weighted at 40%. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI).  

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