

The upside resumed yesterday in nat gas as weather models appeared to be more closely aligned on the intensity of cold weather continuing well into January. Forecasters are predicting extreme cold over the next week, leaving demand at very strong levels. This is widely expected to result in potentially record withdrawals over the coming weeks. The Feb contract settled yesterday up 20.2 cents at $3.651.

Yesterday’s storage data fell within expectations but came in 13 BCF lower than the avg estimate at 40 BCF. The number also fell well below historical comparisons. Stocks now total 3.373 TCF as of Jan 3, 3 BCF lower than last year and 207 BCF above the 5 yr avg. Salt storage in the South Central region increased by 15 BCF while the Midwest posted the biggest withdrawal of 33 BCF. The market had a muted reaction, focusing more on how the current and upcoming cold will impact future reports. Current projections for the week in progress suggest a draw of 251 BCF, which compares to last year’s pull of 150 BCF and the 5 yr avg pull of 128 BCF.
Total demand yesterday rose to 160.8 BCF/day and is down slightly this morning at 159 BCF/day. The decline is due to a 2 BCF/day drop in power burn and a 0.5 BCF/day decline in heating demand. Demand projections over the next 2 weeks show consumption falling to an average of 152.3 BCF/day for the 7 day period while declining further, to 138.8 BCF/day during the 8-14 day period. LNG feedgas increased yesterday by 1.3 BCF/day to 15.4 BCF/day.

Prices ticked lower early this morning on a milder outlook for February however, those losses have dried up with the market currently trading 6 to 7 cents higher. Weather data continues to maintain another round of frigid temps during the 3rd week of Jan.
Technical Analysis

For a 2nd time this week on Wednesday, the February 25 natural gas contract tested 10 day moving average resistance which held.
The February contract rallied higher to a 3.651 close on Wednesday, up .202 (5.8), but settled just under 10 day moving average resistance at 3.655.
With the 10 day moving average holding again, the February contract is currently down .077 at 3.574 in today’s early trade.
Weekly low support at 3.330 coincides with 40 day moving average support at 3.335 today. A close under 3.330 will turn 3.000 into the next area of support.
10 day moving average resistance is at 3.615 today. A breakout above the 10 day average will renew the bullish uptrend turning 4.000 and last week’s 4.201 high into the next areas of resistance.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 52.73






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