

Spot month gas prices traded both sides on Monday, drifting lower into the close as restoration continues following Hurricane Helene. Dry output has begun to turn around while power burn also trended higher. As of yesterday afternoon, only about 0.91% of Gulf production was still shut in. Following Friday’s more than 15 cent rally, the Nov contract settled 2.1 cents higher at $2.923.

Power burn fell 1.5 BCF/day on Friday to 37.2 BCF/day. That demand bounced back yesterday to 40.1 BCF/day but is back down this morning 38.4 BCF/day. Power has been restored to about 2 million customers however 1.8 million still remain without, particularly across Georgia and the Carolinas.
After hitting a low this weekend of 92.9 BCF/day, total demand has improved to 97.8 BCF/day as of this morning.
LNG feedgas demand during September averaged 12.7 BCF/day, down 0.2 BCF/day from August. The reduction is mostly a result of planned maintenance that began Sep 20 at Cove Point LNG. Feedgas demand fell yesterday to 11.1 BCF/day and is estimated at 12.1 BCF/day this morning. Feedgas demand should continue to improve over the next week.
Production levels have also improved since falling towards100 BCF/day late last week. Output recovered yesterday to 101.2 BCF/day and is estimated this morning at 100.9 BCF/day.

Storage levels could end injection season with lower levels than initially anticipated with injections during July and August at record lows. This week’s storage report is likely to show a 12th straight lower than normal build. Early estimates for the week ended Sep 27 range from 54 to 64 BCF. This compares to last year’s build of 87 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 98 BCF.
Prices are trading lower this morning as demand is still being impacted widespread power outages.

The November 24 natural gas contract is currently down .070 near 2.850 in today’s early trade after holding under a key area of resistance on Monday.
The resistance which held on Monday’s 2.948 high was trend line resistance on the daily continuation chart beginning at the mid-January 3.392 high. It was also the 200 day moving average on the November 24 daily chart.
With resistance holding, the trend may be ready to turn back down following a 5-week rally higher.
2.740-2.750 is near term support followed by the 10 day moving average on the daily continuation chart currently at 2.610. Longer term support levels are the 40 and 200 day moving averages at 2.275 and 2.235, respectively.
A breakout above Monday’s 2.948 high would be a very bullish technical signal turning the 3.159 June high into the next area of resistance.
Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index - 69.93






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