

Following Thursday’s slight advance, nat gas prices traded back down ahead of the weekend. Bearish demand impacts from Hurricane Milton overshadowed forecasts calling for the season’s first cold snap across the central and eastern. Friday’s session ended with a 4.3 cent loss, leaving Nov NG to settle at $2.632.

More than 2 million customers were still without power on Friday, down from the previous day’s outage of more than 3 million. With about 75% of Florida’s power reliant on natural gas, the lost power dampened demand for nat gas. The storm did avoid GOM production and Gulf Coast LNG plants. LNG feedgas demand has recovered to 13.5 BCF/day as of today, up from Thursday’s 12.1 BCF/day. The boost to gas flows was aided by Cove Point LNG returning to service over the weekend following 3 weeks of maintenance.
With much cooler air filtering into the central US, res/comm usage this morning is up 5.4 BCF/day at 17 BCF/day. This is 5 BCF/day higher than the previous 7 day avg. Power burn is pegged at 31.8 BCF/day, down 1.2 BCF/day and down 3 BCF/day from the previous 7 day average. Total demand is coming is at 98.4 BCF/day this morning with the current cold snap expected to keep res/comm usage elevated over the next few days.

Friday’s output was estimated at 101.5 BCF/day, down 0.7 BCF/day from Thursday. Output has since recovered back to 102.1 BCF/day as of today. The nat gas rig count fell by 1 last week to 101 rigs.
Prices are trading lower this morning as higher output is offsetting stronger demand. Additionally, the 6-10 day outlook has shifted back to above to much above normal conditions across the eastern 2/3 of the US. The West Coast remains above normal while the Interior West see near normal temps.

The spot November 24 natural gas contract closed lower 4 out of 5 trading days last week settling Friday at 2.632.
For the week, the contract lost .222 or 7.8% while closing down on a weekly basis for a 2nd consecutive week.
Recent weakness came after the November contract failed to clear several areas of resistance near the 3.000 level. With resistance holding, the market remains in a sideways to lower trend.
2.500-2.510 is the next area of support for the November contract followed by the 40 day moving average at 2.415.
10 day moving average resistance is at 2.760 today followed by 3.000 which remains “breakout” resistance.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 48.99






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