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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 10-15-24

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division Heather.Wine@stonex.com
StoneX Value Matrix
image-20241015074741-1
Source: StoneX Value Matrix (2), Bloomberg
StoneX Market Indicator
image-20241015074756-2
Source:  StoneX Market Indicator (1), Bloomberg
Fundamentals & Weather

The nat gas market has declined during 8 of the past 10 sessions given a lack of weather demand and no signs for an early start to winter.  An uptick in production has also limited the upside. Spot month prices tumbled 5% yesterday to a 3 week low as forecasts pointed to mild weather over the latter half of October following this week’s brief cold snap.  The Nov contract settled 13.8 cents lower at $2.494.

 

image 102209
Source: Bloomberg, CME

An early season cold snap is providing support this morning as temps in the Midwest and NE will see lows in the 20s and 30s this week.  Colder conditions have driven heating demand up more than 6 BCF/day since Sunday.  Res/comm usage is estimated to hit 18.8 BCF/day today, up 3.7 BCF/day from Monday.  

Heating demand will remain strong this week before warmer conditions return next week, dropping res/comm usage back to an average of 16.9 BCF/day.   

​​​​
Source: NOAA

LNG exports strengthened over the weekend as Cove Point LNG returned to service. Feedgas demand was estimated yesterday at 13.4 BCF/day and is estimated to be up another 0.4 BCF/day today at 13.8 BCF/day.  Feedgas demand over the next 2 weeks is expected to average 13.7 BCF/day.

​​image 102211
Source: Bloomberg

Nat gas is trading cautiously higher this morning due to current cold conditions across the eastern 2/3 of the country.

 
image-20241015074905-3
Source: Bloomberg, CME

After closing down 4 out of the past 5 days last week, the spot November 24 natural gas contract began the new week of trade on Monday with continued weakness.

The November contract lost .138 on Monday settling at 2.494 on moderate volume of 139,692 contracts.

The November contract has reached the 50% retracement support of the August to September uptrend at 2.445 which is the current overnight low.  This support coincides with the 40 day moving average on the daily continuation chart at 2.420.

If 2.420-2.445 support is broken, the 61.8% retracement at 2.310 will become the next area of support.

2.580-2.600 is near term resistance followed by the 10 day moving average at 2.715.  Longer term resistance reached two weeks ago is near the 3.000 level.  As long as the spot contract holds under 3.000, the trend will remain sideways to down.

Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish

Relative Strength Index - 45.65

image 102151
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 102149
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 102150
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 101363
Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)
image 101362
Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)
Forward Curve Pricing
image 102212
Source: Bloomberg, CME
 
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