

Nat gas prices settled lower for the first time 3 days on expectations for less weather related demand while one million customers were still without power as of yesterday. Nov futures settled 2.7 cents lower on the day at $2.896.

The recent rally in natural gas was supported by lower output which could begin to bounce back as prices turn more attractive. Output last week averaged about 101.3 BCF/day, roughly flat week over week. Production fell yesterday to 99.8 BCF/day and is estimated this morning at 100.2 BCF/day. Production levels should slowly rise over the next 2 weeks.
LNG feedgas demand is expected to remain on the softer side, mostly due to scheduled maintenance at Cove Point. The outage drove down total feedgas demand last week by 500 MMcf/day to 12.5 BCF/day. LNG feedgas demand came in Monday at 11 BCF/day and has since recovered to 11.8 BCF/day.

Prices this morning are advancing as forecasts turned cooler over the East, with HDDs in that region expected to average slightly higher than normal and in line with last year. Evenso, national heating demand looks to remain well below normal during this time. The next 15 days are forecast to yield a total of 68.1 HDDs, ranking 5th lowest.
The NHC is monitoring 3 systems in the Atlantic, Hurricane Kirk which poses no threat to land, Invest-91 that is tracking similarly to Kirk and an area of interest which could slowly emerge from the southern GOM next week.

The November 24 natural gas contract traded slightly lower on Tuesday settling at 2.896 but is up .080 in today’s early trade as it tests three areas of resistance.
The 200 day moving average on the November 24 contract is at 2.950 followed by trend line resistance on the daily continuation chart near the same level. The final area of resistance is the 88% retracement of the June-July downtrend at 2.990.
A close above all three resistance areas would be a very bullish technical signal turning the June 3.159 high into the next upside objective.
Daily continuation chart RSI is at 73.49, an area considered “overbought” which may be a warning the current breakout attempt will fail.
Tuesday’s 2.825 low is near term support with longer term support at the 10 day moving average currently at 2.690.
Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index - 73.63 (in overbought area)






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