

Tomorrow’s expiring November contract surged in last week’s trade, gaining 30.2 cents for the week. The majority of last week’s gains occurred midweek as weather models added in several HDDS to near term outlooks. Storage data led to a brief pause in the rally however the injection was ultimately overlooked amid technical support. Profit taking and position squaring helped Friday’s trade tack on 3.8 cents to settle at $2.56.

The market is on track to end injection season with well above normal supplies. Last week’s storage report revealed a larger than expected injection that pushed total stocks up to 3.785 TCF. Early estimates from Platts for this week’s report suggest a build of 95 BCF, 28 BCF higher than the 5 yr avg. The following 2 weeks are projected to see builds of 67 BCF and 60 BCF, respectively, which would bring total stocks above 4 TCF as of Nov 7.
Will above normal temps extend well into November or will winter start to make an appearance.
LNG flows inched up on Friday to 13 BCF/day however deliveries to Cameron LNG remained depressed at 61% of capacity utilization. Recent reports suggest exploration and production companies are holding out for higher prices before ramping up output. Gas drilling rigs rose by 2 last week to 101 rigs.

Prices are tumbling this morning across the energy complex amid lower geopolitical risk in the Middle East after Israel’s strike on Iran over the weekend avoided energy infrastructure and nuclear sites.
Nat gas is also being pressured by the latest NWS 8-14 day outlook showing nearly the entire country enveloped by above normal readings. Output levels also saw an uptick over the weekend, coming in this morning at 102.4 BCF/day, up 1 BCF/day from Friday.

The highlight of last week’s trade in the natural gas market was an upside breakout on Thursday above 10 and 40 day moving average resistance by the spot November 24 contract.
The breakout failed to initiate follow through buying on Friday. Instead, the November contract held in a fairly narrow .100 range on Friday while also setting a potentially bearish inside range day.
After closing Friday’s session at 2.560, the November contract is down over 7% in today’s early trade.
40 day moving average support at 2.490 was broken overnight turning the 10 day moving average at 2.390 into the next area of support.
Longer term support is the 200 day moving average at 2.225 which held as support early last week.
If 200 day moving average support is broken, the 78% retracement of the August-October uptrend at 2.120 will become the next area of support.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 44.62






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