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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 10-6-22

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
Price Summary table
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 4-Year price deciles Normal & Redistributed

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Fundamentals & weather

Gas prices settled higher again on Wednesday, tracking gains in crude oil after OPEC+ agreed to its deepest production cut since the 2020. Spot month Nov futures settled 9.3 cents higher at $6.93.

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Stocks are expected to rise 113 BCF during the week ended Sep 30.  This compares to last year’s build of 114 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 87 BCF. If correct, stocks would total3.09 TCF.

Expectations are based on weak seasonal demand last week and an increase in wind power that reduced the amount of gas needed for power generation.  Wind power produced 9% of total US electricity last week, up 3% from a few weeks ago.

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US manufacturing activity grew at its slowest pace in nearly 2 ½ years in Sep as new orders contracted amid aggressive interest rate increases from the Fed to cool demand and tame inflation.

While Europe’s supplies are expected to be sufficient to meet demand this winter, the IEA says Europe could face a more acute energy crunch next year.

 

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Prices are trading back above $7 higher this morning despite bearish storage expectations.   
Forecasts are trending warmer in the West this morning while variability continues for the Midwest and East with above normal temps expected to be followed by a cold front.  
Technical Analysis
 
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A seasonal low appears to be in place in the natural gas market as the spot November 22 contract traded down to 9-month trend line support at 6.300 earlier in the week.  

The ensuing rally higher closed the contract above the 10 day moving average on Wednesday with the November contract settling the day at 6.930, up .093. 

7.120-7.140 is near term resistance followed by 7.600 which was neckline support for a bearish head and shoulders pattern.  Given recent strength, it doesn’t appear the measuring objective for the H&S pattern at 5.200 will be reached.

10 day moving average support is at 6.825 today followed by 9-month trend line support at the lower-6.300 area.

Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bearish

Relative Strength Index – 43.80

Seasonal Pricing
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Forward Curve Pricing
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