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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 10-9-25

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

StoneX Value Matrix

image-20251009081452-1

Source: StoneX Value Matrix (2), Bloomberg

Fundamentals & Weather

The nat gas rally stalled yesterday following a 2 day advance as technical resistance, profit taking and ongoing supply/demand uncertainty tempered upward momentum.  The Nov contract settled 16.5 cents lower at $3.333. 

Weather forecasts have cooled over the past week along the East and West coasts while warm conditions persist across  the Central US. Widespread above normal temps are projected from the Rockies to the Plains, Midwest, South and NE.  Cool trends in the East have raised HDDs to 203 for  October, still well below the 10 and 30 yr averages, ranking 5th warmest.  CDDs are pegged at 86 for the month, ranking 9th warmest. 

image 120767

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Today’s storage report is expected to show stocks rose 77 during the week ended Oct 3, which compares to last year’s build of 78 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 94 BCF.  If correct, stocks would increase to 3.638 TCF.  There is concern that lingering late season cooling demand and weaker wind generation could once again result in a build below expectations.  

Early estimates for the week in progress suggest a build of 75 BCF which falls short of last year’s 77 BCF injection and the 5 yr avg injection of 83 BCF.

image 120768

Source: Bloomberg

Production levels continue to fall from recent highs, coming in this morning at 103.7 BCF/day. The decline has been most notable in the Appalachian Basis as cash prices could be causing producers to slow down.  

LNG volumes so far this month have averaged about 16 BCF/day.  Following Tuesday’s decline to 15.5 BCF/day,  flows improved yesterday to 16.2 BCF/day and remain there as of today.  

image 120769Source: NOAA

Prices are currently trading near flat as the market awaits storage data. 

image-20251009081556-2

Source: Bloomberg, CME

The November 25 natural gas contract is currently trading near unchanged following a large sell off on Wednesday which erased all the early week gains.

Yesterday’s sell off began at 200 day moving average resistance and ended at 10 day moving average support as the November contract ended Wednesday’s session at 3.333, down .165 (4.7%).

A drop under 10 day moving average support at 3.320 will turn the near term trend back down with the top of the gap created during the October 25 expiration at 3.133 becoming the next area of support.

Longer term support levels are the 40 day moving average at 3.020 followed by the bottom of the open gap at 2.870.

The daily continuation chart 200 day moving average resistance is at 3.480 today followed by weekly high resistance at 3.585.

Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish

Relative Strength Index - 58.98

image 120772

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 120770

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 120771

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 120732

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

image 120731

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

Forward Curve Pricing

image 120774

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Disclaimer
(1)  The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
 

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