

Yesterday’s storage data undershot expectations but the market didn’t seem to care as the morning selloff progressed following the report. Pressure remains in place due to warm weather expectations across the central and eastern US into mid November. This is leading to expectations that supplies will continue to grow through the first few weeks of November. The Dec contract settled 13.8 cents lower on the day at $2.707.

Coming in below estimates but well above historical levels, the EIA reported a 78 BCF build for the week ended Oct 25, widening the 5 yr avg surplus to 178 BCF and the year over year surplus to 107 BCF. The South Central region led the injection for a 2nd straight week, with stocks there up 35 BCF. The Midwest added 21 BCF while the East added 18 BCF. Total gas in storage now stands at 3.863 TCF.
For the week ending Nov 1, supply/demand fundamentals suggest a tighter market balance with gas demand up 4 BCF/day and output up 1.3 BCF/day. Early expectations for next week’s report point to a build of 62 BCF.
EQT’s output has been fully back online for several weeks following their 1 BCF/day reversal in curtailments. Aside from EQT, most E & P companies are showing continued restraint with decisions to bring back output being based on macro market conditions.
Cheniere Energy is planning to introduce feedgas in the coming weeks to the first liquefaction train of an expansion at Corpus Christi with completion expected in Q1 of 2025. The first 3 midscale trains of the total 7 train Stage 3 project will be completed by the end of 2025 with the remaining 4 trains expected to come online in 2026.

Prices have turned higher after posting early morning losses. Weather patterns remain very mild for the next 2 weeks, favoring light demand. Production levels are down another 0.3 BCF/day today at 100.9 BCF/day. Demand levels continue to rise with overall consumption up 5 BCF/day at 102.3 BCF/day. Res/comm usage is up 8.8 BCF/day while power burn is down 3.7 BCF/day.

Since becoming the spot contract on Wednesday, the December 24 natural gas contract has been steadily declining.
The December contract lost .014 in Wednesday’s session and an additional .138 (4.9%) on Thursday to close the day at 2.707.
The December contract broke down to a new 2024 low on Thursday turning 2.570-2.580 into the next area of support.
Trade down to 2.390 will fill the open gap on the daily continuation chart created during expiration of the November 24 contract on Tuesday.
2.980-3.000 remains primary resistance. As long as the December contract remains under this level, the primary trend will remain sideways to down.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index - 55.33






This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by the FCM Division of StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) (NFA ID: 0476094) or StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”) (NFA ID: 0449652) and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
All references to and discussion of OTC products or swaps are made solely on behalf of SXM. All references to futures and options on futures trading are made solely on behalf of SFI. SXM products are intended to be traded only by individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
SFI and SXM are not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from SFI or SXM for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences.
(1) The StoneX Market Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity. The StoneX Market Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal. This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Reproduction or use in any format without authorization is forbidden. © Copyright 2024. All rights reserved.




