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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 11-24-25

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

StoneX Value Matrix

image-20251124093253-1

Source: StoneX Value Matrix (2), Bloomberg

Fundamentals & Weather

Shifting early December forecasts led to a volatile trade last week with the spot month gaining 1.4 cents week over week. Friday’s session was driven by a more supportive weather forecast for Dec 4-7.  Weather risk was limited by record US output, leaving production at its highest month to date average ever.  Dec futures settled Friday’s session up 10.6 cents at $4.58.

A strong cold front is headed for the Northern US this week, pushing temps to much below normal levels from the Rockies to the Midwest and NE. Cold across the East will let up mid period with a round of above normal temps forecast to move in. Much below normal temps are favored for the Midwest, East and Northern tier while above normal temps dominate the southern portion of the US.   

image 122900

Source: Bloomberg, CME

A big jump in heating demand is expected over the next 2 weeks.  Current levels of 27.9 BCF/day are projected to increase by more than 6 BCF/day over the next 2 weeks as much colder air moves into the northern US.  Heating demand so far this month is averaging 3 BCF/day more than last year at 26 BCF/day.  

LNG feedgas demand remains strong, at an estimated at 18.3 BCF/day. 

image 122907

Source: StoneX

Helping offset demand strength, production levels this morning are at a whopping 109 BCF/day, a new record high.  Output in the Marcellus, Permian and Gulf Coast have been the primary drivers for the uptrend.  

Storage data will be released on Wednesday due to the holiday with expectations for a pull of 7 BCF for the week ended Nov 21.

image 122902Source: NOAA

Record output is pressuring the market this morning.  Volatility is expected ahead of tomorrow’s Dec futures expiration. 

image-20251124093359-2

Source: Bloomberg, CME

The December 25 natural gas contract rallied up to a 4.675 high on Friday but was unable to clear 4.688 resistance set the previous week.

The contract closed Friday’s session at 4.580, up .106 (2.7%) for the day.  For the week, the December contract gained .014 while closing up for a 5th consecutive week.

A double top reversal could be forming if 4.675-4.688 weekly high resistance isn’t quickly broken.

If 4.675-4.688 resistance is broken, the winter 2025 high at 4.900 will become the next upside objective.

10 day moving average support is at 4.515 today followed by last week’s 4.235 low.   Longer term support is at the 4.050-4.070 level.

Moving Average Alignment - Bullish

Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish

Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish

Relative Strength Index - 63.75

image 122905

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 122903

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 122904

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 121477

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

image 121478

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

Forward Curve Pricing

image 122906

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Disclaimer
(1)  The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
 

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