

Nat gas prices surged higher Monday as the market braces for much colder weather over the holiday weekend with heating demand seen rising significantly in the coming weeks. Frigid temps across the North are expected to spread east and south as the week progresses. Storage withdrawals are likely to rapidly accelerate in the coming weeks. Today’s expiring Dec contract gained 24 cents to settle at $3.369 while the Jan contract rose 15.6 cents to settle at $3.443.

Output remains steady at about 103.8 BCF/day. Production levels however are still lower than a year ago. Month to date, output is averaging 101.5 BCF/day, 3.4 BCF/day lower than last year’s 104.9 BCF/day.
Nat gas demand is expected to be moderate through tomorrow as the South and East maintain comfortable conditions. Demand will begin rising to much higher levels on Friday through the middle of next week as much colder temps emerge across the Midwest, advancing eastward later in the week. Temps are forecast to fall to below freezing with highs ranging from10-30 degrees.

We are already beginning to see signs of stronger demand. Total demand is estimated this morning at 120.3 BCF/day, up 8.4 BCF/day from Monday with res/comm usage up 6 BCF/day at 34.6 BCF. Heating demand is projected to reach an average of 132.4 BCF/day over the next week.
Due to Thanksgiving, storage data will be released on Wednesday of this week. Estimates call for a draw of 5 BCF for the week ended Nov 15, which compares to the 5 yr avg draw of 36 BCF.

The December 24 natural gas contract gapped higher on Monday by .229 from Friday’s close ending the day at 3.369, up .240.
Last week’s 3.563 high remains primary resistance. This resistance coincides with three point trend line resistance on the calendar 2025 strip. If resistance continues to hold, the trend should turn back down.
10 day moving average support is at 3.100 today followed by former 11-month trend line resistance broken last week at 3.000-3.020.
A breakout above 3.563 will turn the November 2023 high at 3.630 into the next area of resistance. Longer term resistance is at 3.900-4.000.
Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index - 66.70






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