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By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy
4-Year price deciles Normal & Redistributed
Spot month gas prices fell nearly 5% Thursday following a larger than expected and much larger than normal injection. Additionally, forecasts for mild weather to persist into mid-November is likely to result in a prolonged injection season this year. Dec futures settled 29.3 cents lower at $5.975.
The EIA posted a triple digit build of 107 BCF for the week ended Oct 28, boosting total stocks to 3.501 TCF while narrowing the 5 yr avg deficit to 135 BCF. A sharp drop in demand and an uptick in output last week led to strong injections in the East, Midwest and South Central regions.
Colder weather this week has boosted res/comm, power and industrial demand by 2 BCF/day. Stocks are expected to rise by 67 BCF for the week ending Nov 4.
Total demand this week has fallen from 92.6 BCF/day on Monday to 90.3 BCF as of this morning. Demand will continue to tumble into the weekend before rising back toward 93 BCF/day heading into next week.
Output has been trending lower this week after coming in Monday at 98 BCF/day. Output this morning is down 600 MMcf/day at 96 BCF/day.
The spot December 22 natural gas contract has been trading in a fairly wide .800 range this week but has remained in a sideways trend.
The 10 day moving average has marked the lower end of the weekly range with former trend line support marking the upper end of the range.
Prices are up today following a sell off on Thursday which dropped the December contract lower by .293 as it settled at 5.975.
A breakout above former trend line support currently near 6.600 which coincides with the 40 day moving average at the same level followed by the 200 day average at 6.785 will turn the longer term trend back up.
10 day moving average support is at 5.775 today with longer term 28-month trend line support at 4.750.
Relative Strength Index – 49.60
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