

Following last week’s 8.5% tumble, gas prices strengthened to start the week amid strong LNG feedgas demand while near term forecasts shifted cooler, suggesting stronger heating demand ahead. Projections for later in the month also turned much colder for the NE, which are helping boost storage withdrawal expectations for the coming few weeks. Spot month futures settled 10.6 cents higher at $3.182.

Near term forecasts have trended colder for later this week with HDD expectations rising over the weekend. Changes were colder for the Midwest for the next 5 days and across the East during the 11-15 day period. Forecasts gained 14.6 HDDs with Maxar projecting a total of 380.3 HDDs for the next 15 days, which falls between the 10 and 30 yr norms. The forecast however is colder when compared to last year which ranked 3rd warmest.
Production surpassed 14 BCF/day yesterday but has since moved lower. Platts estimates dry output at 103.2 BCF/day as of this morning, down 0.9 BCF/day. Output is projected to average 103.4 BCF/day over the next 2 weeks. Month to date, output is averaging 103.3 BCF/day, down 1.4 BCF/day from a year ago.

Prices are trading lower this morning as feedgas demand for Monday was revised lower, leaving total feedgas demand at 13.2 BCF. Lower demand across the Sabine Pass, Cameron and Calcasieu export terminals. Feedgas demand is estimated this morning at 13.8 BCF/day.

The January 25 natural gas contract gapped higher by nearly .200 from Friday’s 3.076 close to begin Monday’s session.
The January contract rallied up to a 3.324 high on Monday before pulling back into the close to settle the day at 3.182, up .106 (3.4%).
Daily volume came in at a 6-month high of 258,430 contracts which could mark an exhaustion top for this current rally.
Prices are down in today’s early trade with the gap created on Monday’s open now closed. The lower-3.000 area which held last week remains primary support.
If lower-3.000 support is broken, the 40 day moving average at 2.830 will become the next area of support.
10 day moving average resistance is at 3.175 today followed by 3.324 weekly high resistance. Longer term resistance is the 3.563 high set two weeks ago.
Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 52.98






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