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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 12-2-25

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

StoneX Value Matrix

image-20251202082703-1

Source: StoneX Value Matrix (2), Bloomberg

Fundamentals & Weather

Spot month gas prices traded within a .189 cent range yesterday with lows established early in the session.  A late day rally pushed the market into positive territory, leaving the Jan contract up 7.1 cents to settle at $4.921. 

The afternoon surge stemmed from several weather models trending toward a colder and more persistent pattern. Near term outlooks show much below normal temps across the central and eastern US through Saturday.  The West trends warmer during the 6-10 day period while much below normal temps remain across the eastern US with strong below normal readings in the NE. The cold will scale back during the 11-15 day period, covering the Northern Tier and Mid-Atlantic.

image 123289

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Demand levels are down slightly this morning at 146.8 BCF/day with much of the loss stemming from a 2.1 BCF/day decline in power burn. Heating demand is in line with yesterday’s level, at 46.3 BCF/day.  

Consumption across the US is expected to average 126 BCF/day this month, which would be 16.8 BCF/day higher than November and 11 BCF/day higher than the 5 yr avg. Heating demand will see the largest rise from last month of about 12.3 BCF/day, averaging 39.3 BCF/day.  

image 123290

Source: StoneX

While demand surged yesterday, production levels eased.  Output fell to 108.3 BCF/day and is estimated this morning at 108.2 BCF/day. The drop is being blamed on early month pipe balancing adjustments and is likely to be revised higher.  Over the next week, production is projected to average 108.4 BCF/day. 

image 123291Source: NOAA

The Jan contract is trading lower this morning but continues to hover near 3 yr highs at $4.91.

image-20251202082826-2

Source: Bloomberg, CME

The January 26 natural gas contract rallied up to a new 3-year high at 4.952 in Monday’s session closing the day at 4.921, up  .071. 

The January contract rallied up to a 4.984 high in today’s early trade but is currently down .040 at 4.881.

The trend remains up but bearish divergences are forming on the daily and 60-minute chart suggesting a pullback in prices.

Over the past 3 months, the spot contract has gained 2.362 or 90% and is at levels historically that past winter highs have been set.  

However, a breakout above the 5.000 level will turn the 61.8% retracement of the March-October downtrend at 5.200 into the next  upside objective.

Former daily high resistance at 4.675-4.688 is near term support followed closely by the 10 day moving average at 4.615.  A close under the 10 day average will turn the near term trend back down.

Moving Average Alignment - Bullish

Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish

Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish

Relative Strength Index - 67.90

image 123300

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 123200

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 123299

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 123292

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

image 121478

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

Forward Curve Pricing

image 123298

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Disclaimer
(1)  The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
 

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