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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 12-21-22

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
Price Summary table
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 4-Year price deciles Normal & Redistributed

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Fundamentals & weather

The gas market has pretty much brushed off this week’s massive storm and ensuing bout of extreme cold across much of the US as spot month prices continued to plunge yesterday.  Expectations for much warmer conditions post Christmas, stronger output, economic concerns and a delayed restart at Freeport have all contributed to recent weakness.  The Jan contract shed 52.5 cents to settle at $5.326.

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Platts is calling for a draw of 94 BCF for the week ended Dec 16. A draw this size would fall short of the 5 yr avg draw of 124 BCF and would leave total stocks at 3.32 TCF.  Heating demand rose by 19% from the previous week while an uptick in LNG feedgas demand also contributed to stronger demand.  For the week in progress, a much larger pull of 196 BCF is currently forecast, 90 BCF higher than the 5 yr avg. 

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A major winter storm is expected to begin today across much of the Midwest and NE with subzero lows and blizzard conditions likely.  The longevity of the cold however has been scaled back with widespread coverage of much above normal readings now expected late Dec into early Jan across the East while the West ranges from normal to above normal. 

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Total demand is up 0.2 BCF/day at 134 BCF/day.  Platts projects demand will average 139.2 BCF/day over the next week.  Consumption will fall to 114 BCF/day during the 8-14 day avg.

Prices are higher this morning as colder weather is beginning to cause well freeze offs while small amounts of gas started flowing to Freeport.  Freeport is likely using the gas to fuel a power plant but it could be a sign the plant is getting closer to restart. 

Technical Analysis
 
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The spot January 23 natural gas contract has collapsed over the last two sessions losing .749 or 11.3% on Monday and an additional .525 or 9.8% on Tuesday as it closed the day at 5.326.

Tuesday’s 5.256 low is near term support followed by 5.090 which is the final 88% retracement of the October-November uptrend.

If 5.090 support is reached and holds, a bullish descending rectangle pattern may be complete on the 60-minute chart which will be discussed further as it unfolds.

The gap created on Monday’s open between 6.275-6.575 is a pattern gap and will remain a bullish feature until closed.

Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bearish

Relative Strength Index – 42.01

Seasonal Pricing
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Forward Curve Pricing
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