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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 12-30-22

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
Price Summary table
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 4-Year price deciles Normal & Redistributed

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Fundamentals & weather

Despite a tightening in domestic supplies, nat gas prices have continued to trade lower this week as mild weather is set to continue into mid-January.  Nat gas prices even brushed off weekly storage data showing a notably larger than expected pull. Feb futures settled 15 cents lower at $4.559.

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The EIA reported a 213 BCF withdrawal for the week ended Dec 23, leaving total stocks at 3.112 TCF.  The draw outpaced expectations by 17 BCF and came in significantly above historical comparisons.  Inventories fell back into a deficit with stocks now 85 BCF below the 5 yr avg and 133 BCF below last year. 

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Probabilities remain strong for most of the US to see warmer than normal temps during the 8-14 day period.  The highest chance for warmth is concentrated in the Midwest and NE which, combined, account for more than half of winter heating demand.  

Weather models from Maxar shifted slightly cooler overnight, mostly for the Central US during the 6-10 day period.  The forecast still remains in the normal to much above normal categories from the Plains to the East Coast.

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After widespread freeze offs curtailed output, production levels have been rising this week to more than 95 BCF/day.  A full rebound in output could be delayed as domestic production typically slows heading into a new year.  

Freeport LNG is now not expected to start up until the 2nd half of Jan.  While reconstruction work is nearly complete, they are still awaiting regulatory approval to restart. 

Technical Analysis
 
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Thursday’s trade was another down day, with the new front-month February contract settling at $4.559, down .126 cents.  The low yesterday at $4.422 was the lowest price since February 10th when the low was $4.295.    

A good deal of this week’s downside breakout can be attributed to the low volume holiday trade.  Next week will be a good test to see if there is follow-thru as traders return from the New Year’s weekend.  

Seasonal patterns show the next opportunity for a more sustained uptrend in the February period but the bulk of downside seasonal weakness is about over.  More sideways action is likely based on 3 & 5-year trends.

The low made on February 10th at $4.295 for the February contract is the next level of support followed by the $4.000 level.    

Resistance is at the 10 day moving average at $5.120 followed by the 12/24 high of $5.245.

Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bearish

Relative Strength Index – 39.75

Seasonal Pricing
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Forward Curve Pricing
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