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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 12-6-23

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
StoneX Value Matrix
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StoneX Market Indicator
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Fundamentals & Weather

Spot month gas prices settled about 1% higher on Tuesday as forecasts shifted a touch cooler, increasing heating demand expectations.  Jan futures settled 1.6 cents higher at $2.71.

The market is seeing small gains this morning on supportive revisions to weather outlooks while output has turned weaker.  

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A tighter market balance due to much colder weather during the last week of November is expected to result in the first major drawdown this season.  Platts is estimating a draw of 105 BCF for the week ended Dec 1 while Reuters projects a pull of 101 BCF.  In either case, the number would greatly exceed last year’s withdrawal of 30 BCF and the 5 yr avg draw of 48 BCF.  

The supply/demand balance tightened just under 14 BCF/day for the reporting week with res/comm demand up more than 8 BCF/day from the week prior while power demand rose about 4.2 BCF/day week over week.  Production levels fell about 900 MMcf/day.  

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Output levels have turned weaker due mostly to reductions in the SW and NE regions.  Dry production fell sharply yesterday to 103.1 BCF/day, down from Monday’s 104.8 BCF/day.  Output this morning is estimated at 103 BCF/day.  This leaves month to date output at an average of 104 BCF/day.  

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While the next 5 days will average well above normal across the US, the latest 6-10 day outlook from Maxar shows normal to below normal conditions across a majority of the eastern US.
The NWS shows above normal readings in the NE, the southern portion of the west coast and parts of the Northern Plains.  Most other regions will average near normal. 
Technical Analysis
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The January 24 natural gas contract rallied higher in Tuesday’s early session retesting 7-month trend line support broken Monday as resistance.

This resistance held near the 2.786 daily high resulting in renewed selling into the close with the January contract ending the day at 2.710, up .016.

With resistance holding on Tuesday, the near term trend remains down with the 61.8% retracement of the April-October uptrend at 2.590 being the next area of support.

Failure to hold above 2.590 support which includes the 200 day moving average at 2.620 would turn the 78% retracement at 2.315 into the next area of longer term support.

Trend line and 10 day moving average resistance is at 2.780-2.790 today.

Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Relative Strength Index – 40.35

Seasonal Prices
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Forward Curve Pricing
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