

With forecasts shedding a significant amount of HDDs over the weekend, tomorrow’s expiring March contract traded sharply lower on Monday. Production has also rebounded back over 104 BCF/day since falling to 102 BCF/day last week when the cold weather peaked. March NG settled 24 cents lower at $3.994.

This week’s change to more mild temps has caused heating demand to fade. After peaking last week at more than 61 BCF/day, res/comm usage has dropped by 30 BCF/day to 31.3 BCF/day as of this morning.
Above to much above normal temps are expected to be the norm across the US through Saturday. Heating demand is projected to average 35.3 BCF/day over the next week.
LNG exports have soared to record levels, coming in Monday at 16.5 BCF/day. This marks the 8th straight day that exports have exceeded 16 BCF/day. Plaquemines has rapidly increased production since December, receiving 1.6 BCF/day yesterday, while the expansion of the Corpus Christi terminal has also helped ramp up output. Both facilities are expected to continue increasing this year into 2026.

Prices have turned back higher this morning with support stemming from anticipation over a further tightening in the market balance.
Last week’s frigid temps, production freeze offs and record LNG feedgas demand is expected to result in a massive storage withdrawal. Withdrawal estimates call for a pull between 230 and 290 BCF with the avg estimate near 275 BCF. This compares to last year’s pull 86 BCF and the 5 yr avg pull of 141 BCF.
This morning’s outlook from Maxar leans colder from the Midwest to the South and slightly warmer in the East over the coming 6-10 day period.
Technical Analysis

The March 25 natural gas contract gapped lower by .169 from Friday’s close to begin yesterday’s trade.
After bottoming out at a 3.906 morning low, prices firmed into the close with the March contract ending the day at 3.994, down .240 (5.6%).
Volume on Monday was light at 82,872 contracts which indicates profit-taking was behind much of yesterday’s weakness versus new shorts entering the market.
10 day moving average support held on Monday keeping the market, at this point, in a bullish uptrend.
Trade up to 4.148 will close the gap created on Monday’s open and is near term resistance. Longer term resistance is last week’s 4.476 high.
10 day moving average support is at 3.915 today followed by the 40 day average at 3.710.
If 40 day moving average support is broken, the trend will turn back down with the 38.1% retracement of the 2024-2025 uptrend at 3.330 becoming the next downside objective.
Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index -57.62






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