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By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy
4-Year price deciles
Spot month gas prices dropped 6.5% on Friday as forecasts showed less cold and lower heating demand over the coming 2 weeks.
Friday’s trade left the market down slightly on the week following the previous week’s 23% rise.
Heavy selling the past 2 sessions has been a result of changes in weather outlooks. Temps will be warmer than previously expected during mid Feb.
Additional selling pressure stemmed from limited impacts to the energy grid following last week’s arctic cold over the central and northern US.
Nat gas prices are trading lower again this morning. Weather outlooks continue to point to less cold for mid to late Feb, helping reverse bullish bets.
The latest NWS 8-14 day outlook shows the western 2/3 of the US averaging mostly above normal. Only the Upper NE and parts of the SE will average colder than normal.
Demand expectations are factoring in the warm up with Platts projecting total demand to average 117 BCF/day during the 8-14 day period. This is down from demand expectations of 123.1 BCF/day for the coming week.
Another volatile week of trade in the natural gas market last week as the March 22 contract rallied up to a new 12-week high at 5.572 on Wednesday.
By Friday’s close, the contract had given back 1.000 of the gains to settle the day at 4.572.
For the week, the contract was up .289 or 6.7%.
The March contract closed just above 10 day moving average support on Friday but has broken out under this level at 4.575 today.
A close under the 10 day average will turn the trend back down with 4.300 being the next area of support.
Longer term 200 day moving average support is at 4.055.
The 10 day moving average is now the 1st area of resistance today at 4.575.
Technical Indicators: Moving Average Alignment – Neutral; Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish; Short Term Trend Following Index – Bullish; Relative Strength Index – 51.06
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