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By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy
Spot month gas prices eased yesterday with pressure stemming from light seasonal demand while a 17% plunge in EU gas prices further weighed on the market. The April contract settled 10 cents lower at $3.02.
The NOAA's 6–10 day outlook shows strong warmth taking hold across the West as the East turns colder than normal. Through the 2nd half of March, above normal temps will persist across the West and gradually extend into the East, with only the Northeast expected to remain below normal.
The EIA cut its 2026 natural gas price outlook by 13% in the latest STEO, citing limited US price impact from reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The revision reflects mild late winter weather, rising production driven largely by increased associated gas output and expectations for higher storage levels in the months ahead. End of winter inventories are now projected at 1.84 TCF, 184 BCF below the agency’s October estimate but still in line with the 5 yr avg.
The next 2 storage reports are expected to come in lower than normal given the mild start to March. For the week ended Mar 6, a draw of 46 BCF is likely, lower than both the 5yr avg and year ago draws of 64 BCF. Total demand fell by roughly 12 BCF/d last week, led by a decline of 10 BCF/d in heating load.
Demand has continued to slide this week, raising the potential for an early season injection for the week ending Mar 13. Withdrawals could resume later this month as another cold spell pushes into the NE and Midcon.
Source: StoneX
The April 26 natural gas contract lost .100 on Tuesday closing at 3.020 but held above 10-day moving average support as it appears to be carving out a post-winter seasonal low.
Trend following indicators remain mixed but the push under the 3.000 handle two weeks reaching at 2.775 was short-lived with the April contract for the most part holding above the 3.000 level as support for the past three weeks.
To turn the longer-term trend higher, the spot April contract will need to breakout above 40 and 200 day moving average resistance currently at the 3.570 (200-day average)-3.630 (40-day average) area.
The April contract reached at 3.494 high on Monday before selling back off.
10-day moving average support is at 3.005 today. If broken, 2.880-2.890 and 2.775, the spot contract low for 2026, will become the next areas of support.
Moving Average Alignment - Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index - 46.64
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