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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 3-12-25

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
 
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division Heather.Wine@stonex.com 
StoneX Value Matrix
image-20250312090028-2
Source: StoneX Value Matrix (2), Bloomberg
StoneX Commodity Indicator
image-20250312085915-1
 
Source:  StoneX Commodity Indicator (1), Bloomberg
Fundamentals & Weather

Yesterday saw weakness in the nat gas market after 2 straight higher closes  Following a brief divergence, the correlation between weather and market action has begun to align.  A decline in output yesterday was offset by mild weather forecasts for the second half of March. With below normal HDDs projected over the next 2 weeks, we could see an early start to injection season.  The April contract settled 3.8 cents lower Tuesday at $4.453.

image 109510
Source: Bloomberg, CME

A lower than normal withdrawal of 44 BCF is expected for the week ended Mar 7.  This is about half the size of the previous week’s 80 BCF pull and compares bearishly to the 5 yr avg draw of 56 BCF. The year over year deficit however would widen as storage drew by just 19 BCF for the same week last year.  If the estimate proves correct, stocks would fall to 1.716 TCF.  

For the week in progress, most expectations suggest an even smaller withdrawal in the 7 to 11 BCF range while the season’s first injection could take place in the week following. The EIA is now predicting season ending storage levels will be about 10% lower than the 5 yr avg.  

image 109508​​​​
Source: Bloomberg

Forecasts for the second half of March have been rapidly warming with below normal HDDs expected over the next 2 weeks. Light weather related demand will remain in place as warmer than normal conditions spread throughout the eastern 2/3 of the US this week. The warmth across the East should continue through at least March 26.

Demand predictions are reflective of the warm up with res/comm usage projected to average about 26 BCF/day over the next 2 weeks.

​​image 109509
Source: Bloomberg

Prices are trading lower this morning as fundamentals turn increasingly more bearish.  

Production levels have rebounded from yesterday’s decline, coming in 1 BCF/day higher this morning at 105.9 BCF/day.  Yesterday’s drop occurred as the New Mexico portion of the Permian Basin faces major flow restrictions amid ongoing maintenance issues.

Weather forecasts also shed additional HDDs overnight.

Technical Analysis

 

image-20250312090208-3
Source: Bloomberg, CME

The April 25 natural gas contract traded generally flat on Tuesday following Monday’s spike to a new 2+ year high ending the day at 4.453, down .038.

Volume was moderate at 192,161 contracts.

Early selling today has dropped the April contract to daily continuation chart 10 day moving average support at 4.260.

If 10 day average support is broken, the 40 day average currently at 3.865 will become the next area of support.  A close under the 40 day average will turn the trend back down.

Tuesday’s 4.588 high is near term resistance followed by Monday’s 4.901 high.

Bearish divergences (new price high, lower index high) on the daily RSI index may be warning a top is near.  Funds were net long a hefty 323,419 contracts as of the 03/04 close.  Fund liquidation could become a bearish factor if support levels are broken.

Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish

Relative Strength Index -55.86

image 109512
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 109513
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 109458
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 109354
Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)
image 109352
Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)
Forward Curve Pricing
image 109511
Source: Bloomberg, CME
 
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