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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 3-12-26

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

StoneX Value Matrix

image-20260312092826-1

ource: StoneX Value Matrix (2), Bloomberg

Fundamentals & Weather

Nat gas prices rebounded higher Wednesday as support from another surge in crude oil offset mostly bearish fundamentals.  April nat gas settled 18.9 cents higher at $3.209.  

Following 2 days of record breaking warmth across the eastern US, temps are set to cool later this week, with the central US already trending colder.  Much of the East is on track for strong below normal readings early to mid next week, while the West is expected to see an extended, and potentially historic, heatwave.

Source: NOAA

Weather driven demand remains mixed with near term cold currently driving up usage with a warming trend in the 11-15 day range set to push heating demand back down. A cold front moving from the Rockies through the Midwest has pushed res/comm usage up 11 BCF/d this morning at 30.7 BCF/d, boosting overall demand to 117.4 BCF/d.  Lingering cold over the next week will keep heating demand at an average of 34 BCF/d. Demand is expected to ease to 25.1 BCF/d during the 8-14 day period.   

image 128060

Source: StoneX

Storage levels likely fell by 43 BCF in the week ended March 6.  This compares to both last year and the 5 yr avg draws of 64 BCF.  If correct, stocks would decline to 1.843 TCF, the 5 yr avg deficit would narrow to 22 BCF while the surplus to year ago levels would widen to 136 BCF.   

Low demand to start the week in progress could lead to an early injection.  Estimates for next week’s report call for a build of 8 BCF, bearish versus last year’s draw of 1 BCF and the 5 yr avg draw of 29 BCF.

image 128059Source: StoneX

image-20260312092850-2

Source: Bloomberg, CME

A strong rally in the natural gas market on Wednesday as the spot April 26 contract rallied off 10-day moving average support reaching a 3.228 daily high before closing the session at 3.209, up .189 or 6.2%.

More evidence that a post-winter seasonal low is in place with yesterday’s rally, but the spot contract will need to clear 40 and 200-day moving average resistance to turn the longer-term trend back up.

200-day moving average resistance is at 3.570 today followed by the 40-day average at 3.625.  Monday’s high topped out at 3.494.

3.180-3.200 is near term support followed by 3.055 which is the 10-day moving average.  

Moving Average Alignment - Neutral-Bearish

Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish

Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish

Relative Strength Index - 48.73

image 128067

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 128066

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 128065

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 126918

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

image 126917

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

Forward Curve Pricing

image 128064

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Disclaimer
(1)  The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
 

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