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By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy
Despite colder near term forecasts and crude testing the $100 level, nat gas futures eased on Monday as expectations for an early season injection weighed on sentiment. April NG settled 10.8 cents lower at $3.023.
Winterlike cold is moving across the East this week with a storm causing temperature drops of more than 40 degrees in some areas. The cold peaks today and tomorrow before gradually easing with additional but less severe cold shots expected next week. Record heat is building out West with strong to much above normal temps likely to persist through the 6–10 day period.
Prices are on the rise this morning as output has declined to 106.5 BCF/d, likely due to freezing pipes in North Dakota.
The late season cold snap continues to elevate heating needs across the Midwest and NE. Res/comm usage is estimated this morning at 43.8 BCF/, up 15.3 BCF/d. Heating demand should ease slightly tomorrow to about 36 BCF/day with the 7 day average estimated at 27.8 BCF/d.
US supply remains healthy with this week’s storage report expected to show a net injection of 42 BCF BCF for the week ended Mar 13. This compares to the 5 yr avg decline of 29 BCF.
Source: StoneXLNG feedgas demand climbed to 19.3 BCF/d on Monday and remains firm this morning at 19.1 BCF/d. Volumes are expected to hold near these levels over the next 2 weeks.
Plaquemines has received approval to increase peak liquefaction capacity by 13%, enabling the terminal to produce up to 27.2 mmt per year. The amendment also authorizes exports to countries that lack free trade agreements, representing a greater share of LNG import markets.
Ships chartered by QatarEnergy have departed from Plaquemines LNG and are en route to China. This marks the first US LNG cargo to arrive in China since early last year.
A bearish start to the new trading week on Monday as the spot April 26 natural gas contract was heavily sold from the open losing .108 (3.4%) to close at 3.023.
The one positive for the session was the April contract again closed over the 3.000 level which outside of late-February has been primary support.
If selling continues today, 2.880-2.890 will become the next support for the April contract followed by the 2.775 February low.
If 2.775 support is reached and broken, 2.500 will become the next longer-term support.
The 10-day moving average broken as support on Monday is now primary resistance at 3.090 followed by Monday’s 3.180 high.
Longer-term resistance is between 3.565 (200-day moving average) extending up to 3.625 (40-day average). A close above both averages is needed to turn the long-term trend back up.
Moving Average Alignment - Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index - 45.23
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