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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 3-26-26

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

StoneX Value Matrix

image-20260326083704-1

Source: StoneX Value Matrix (2), Bloomberg

Fundamentals & Weather

Spot month gas prices settled near unchanged on Wednesday, reversing early losses after Iran rejected a US peace plans.  Expectations for supportive storage data and LNG exports near capacity provided additional support.  Tomorrow’s expiring Apr contract rose .009 to settle at $2.952

The spot month continues to hover below $3 this morning. The near term outlook for demand should continue to weigh on prices while headlines surrounding Iran could offer short term support.

Forecasts continue to show cool pockets in the North and record heat in the SW, with mild spring weather elsewhere through early April. The Weather Desk is now projecting more widespread and intense warmth across the Central and Southern US in April, prompting a 25 HDD reduction in their outlook. Their forecast totals 305 HDDs, which would mark the 9th warmest April since 1950.

image 128758

Source: StoneX

Today’s storage report is expected to show the final withdrawal of the season as colder conditions across the central and eastern US last week caused a 10.7 BCF/d spike in heating demand.  Projections suggest a draw of 44 BCF for the week ended Mar 20 which is supportive when compared to last year’s injection of 33 BCF and the 5 yr avg decline of 21 BCF.  If correct, stocks would fall to 1.839 TCF.

Projections for the week in progress point to a build near 40 BCF which would outpace last year’s build of 30 BCF and the 5 yr avg draw of 4 BCF.

image 128759Source: StoneX

Feedgas flows continue to ramp up with nominations to Corpus Christi reaching nearly 2.5 BCF/d yesterday as its Stage 3 Train 5 begins initial liquefaction and Train 6 undergoes commissioning work. Train 5 is expected to be operational very soon. Month to date, flows are averaging 18.5 BCF/day and are projected to average 19 BCF/d over the next 2 weeks.

image 128760
Source: StoneX

image-20260326083722-2

Source: Bloomberg, CME

The April 26 natural gas contract closed near unchanged on Wednesday settling at 2.952, up 9 ticks.

The contract did manage to breakout above 60-minute chart trend line resistance which is a supportive factor heading into today’s session.

This resistance is now support at the lower-2.900 level holding overnight at the current 2.918 low.

10-day moving average resistance on the daily continuation chart is at 3.025 today.

A breakout above 3.025 will turn the near-term trend back higher with the 40-day moving average at 3.145 becoming the next upside resistance.

A drop back under lower-2.900 support will turn the weekly low at 2.864 into the next area of support followed by 2.775, the late-February and 2026 spot contract low.

Moving Average Alignment - Bearish

Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish 

Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish

Relative Strength Index - 44.32

image 128764

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 128763

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 128762

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 126918

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

image 126917

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

Forward Curve Pricing

image 128918

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Disclaimer
(1)  The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
 

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