

Injections continued last week, further narrowing the 5 yr avg storage deficit, which has improved by 108 BCF over the past 2 weeks. The market’s reaction however was brief as short covering and underlying support drove April futures higher on its final day of trade. April NG expired 8.9 cents higher at $3.95 while the new spot month May contract settled 5.3 cents higher at $3.925.

Storage levels for the week ended Mar 21 rose by a higher than expected 37 BCF, increasing total gas in storage to 1.744 TCF. The number was also bearish by historical standards, leaving the year over year deficit at 557 BCF and the 5 year avg deficit at 122 BCF. The South Central region drove the build once again.
Injections are expected to continue heading into April as heating demand remains below normal. For the week ending Mar 28, Platts predicts a build in the 18 to 21 BCF range which compares to last year’s draw of 37 BCF and the 5 yr avg draw of 13 BCF.
Export demand has been strong this month, reaching as high as 16.7 BCF/day, given expansions at Plaquemines LNG. With Golden Pass underway, feedgas demand could reach 17 BCF/day prior to September. LNG flows were flat yesterday at 16.2 BCF/day with the month to date average at 15.8 BCF/day.

The market is trading lower this morning as deficits continue to narrow. Mild weather forecasts for the next 2 weeks remain unsupportive and will allow the supply/demand balance to improve further.
Technical Analysis

The new front month May 25 natural gas contract staged a late-day rally on Thursday to close the day at 3.925, up .064.
The May contract closed back over the 40 day moving average on the daily continuation chart at 3.915 but so far there has been no follow through buying in today’s early trade.
10 day moving average resistance is at 3.970 today. A breakout above this average could spur short-covering with last weeks 4.259 high becoming the next area of resistance.
Trend following indexes are in a bearish alignment suggesting a winter top is in place.
Thursday’s 3.689 low is near term support followed by 3.380 which is the 38% Fibonacci retracement support of the 2024-2025 uptrend.
Longer term support is the 50% retracement at 3.015 which coincides with the 200 day moving average currently at 2.990.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 43.28






This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by the FCM Division of StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) (NFA ID: 0476094) or StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”) (NFA ID: 0449652) and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
All references to and discussion of OTC products or swaps are made solely on behalf of SXM. All references to futures and options on futures trading are made solely on behalf of SFI. SXM products are intended to be traded only by individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
SFI and SXM are not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from SFI or SXM for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences.
(1) The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity. The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal. This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Reproduction or use in any format without authorization is forbidden. © Copyright 2024. All rights reserved.



