

In similar fashion to Thursday’s trade, the spot month contract started Friday’s session weak before ending the day stronger on bargain buying and longer range, supportive fundamentals. The new spot month May contract settled 14 cents higher at $4.065.

Friday’s weather outlook pointed to lower res/comm usage due to reduced heating needs but stronger power burn driven by early season cooling demand. Heating demand on Friday slid 7.5 BCF day over day to 18.5 BCF/day. Since Friday, res/comm usage has climbed 6.1 BCF/day to 23.6 BCF/day this morning. A significant cooler shift in forecasts over the weekend has elevated heating demand expectations. Over the next week, heating demand is now projected to average 23.9 BCF/day, increasing to 25.8 BCF/day during the 8-14 day period. This compares to the previous 7 day average of 22.2 BCF/day.
LNG has been a constant source of underlying support. Feedgas flows have remained above 16 BCF/day over the past week and will continue at this level over the coming 2 weeks. LNG feedgas demand could rise towards 17 BCF/day this summer, climbing further into 2026 as new facilities are brought online and current ones expand.

Today’s weather forecast has turned much colder versus Friday’s outlook, gaining 19.5 HDDs. The largest shifts are focused on the Central and Southern US as colder air from Canada flows into the eastern 2/3 of the US. Much below normal temps are expected in the Rockies and Plains early in the period, spreading eastwards into the Central and East late in the period. Lows are projected to range from the upper 20’s to mid 30’s. The South and Mid-Atlantic will see strong above normal temps early on before turning colder.
The change in weather caused prices to gap higher this morning. May NG is currently trading 9 to 10 cents higher.
Technical Analysis

Late week strength closed the spot May 25 natural gas contract back over 10 and 40 day moving average resistance on Friday settling the day at 4.065.
For the week, the May contract was up .085 while closing higher on a weekly basis for the 1st time in 3 weeks.
Friday’s bullish close has been followed by a .177 gap higher open from Friday’s close as the May contract tests 4.259 weekly high resistance.
If 4.259 resistance is broken, former highs at 4.370 and 4.480 will become the next areas of resistance. Longer term resistance is the 4.901 high set three weeks ago.
The 10 day moving average is near term support at 4.010 followed closely by the 40 day average at 3.950. Longer term support is last week’s 3.689 low.
Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 56.85






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