

A significant shift in weather models over the weekend along with strong LNG feedgas demand prompted further gains in nat gas on Monday. Weather models added 17 HDDs with much cooler temps forecast for the Central and Eastern US through mid-April. This is expected to spark a round of late season heating demand that could weigh on storage injections. May NG settled 5.4 cents higher at $4.119, down from the intraday high of $4.25.

Near term forecasts are showing areas east of the Rockies at risk for below normal temps from Apr 6-14 with the Upper Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions most at risk for cold. Temps across the Midcon will average 8 degrees below normal while temps in the NE will average 10 degrees below normal.
Colder conditions are expected to push res/comm usage up to an average of 24.5 BCF/day over the next 2 weeks, which 3.5 BCF/day, or about 17%, above the 5 yr avg. Heating demand will peak near 30 BCF/day early next week before easing back down. Strengthening demand could reduce the size of injections for early to mid April.
Strong exports have been underlying source of support for prices. LNG feedgas demand hit record levels last week with terminals scheduled to receive 16.1 BCF/day yesterday. A ramp up at Plaquemines has been a driving factor for the increase.

Feedgas demand has dropped this morning to an estimated 15.3 BCF/day, which is weighing on prices. Warmer changes across the eastern 2/3 of the US are also helping reverse yesterday's gains.
May nat gas is currently trading 9 cents lower on the day
Technical Analysis

The May 25 natural gas contract gapped higher on Monday’s open rallying up to 3.250 weekly high resistance in early trade which held.
Prices pulled back into the close with the May contract setting at 4.119, up .054.
Prices are down in today’s early trade with the May contract nearing 10 day moving average support at 4.005 followed closely by the 40 day average at 3.965.
If 10 and 40 day moving average support is broken again, last week’s 3.689 low is near term support followed by 3.380, the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the 2024-2025 uptrend. Longer term support is at 3.000.
Monday’s 4.253 high is primary resistance followed by 4.370 and 4.480. Longer term resistance is the 4.901 high set three weeks ago.
Trend following indicators are all in a bearish alignment. 10, 40 and 200 day moving average alignment is currently bullish but the 10 day average may be ready to bearishly cross under the 40 day average.
Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 52.13






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