Quarterly Commodities Outlook is available for free now.  Download your report  →

StoneX logo

Daily Natural Gas Market Update 4-13-26

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

StoneX Value Matrix

image-20260413075043-1

Source: StoneX Value Matrix (2), Bloomberg

Fundamentals & Weather

Nat gas futures extended losses Friday as should season fundamentals and mild weather forecasts pressured the market.  Marking the 3rd consecutive daily decline, the May contract settled 2.2 cents lower at $2.648.

Natural gas traded higher overnight after US–Iran peace talks ended without an agreement, lifting global energy prices. Tensions escalated further after the US announced a blockade of Iranian ports beginning today. Gains, however, are fading amid weak domestic fundamentals.

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability

Source: NOAA

Price action continues to be dominated by fading weather related demand as shoulder season conditions limit both heating and cooling needs.

Demand has trended lower over the past week, led by easing res/comm usage, which has fallen to 13.3 BCF/d from last Monday’s level of 23.1 BCF/d.

image 129744Source: StoneX

The storage trajectory remains in focus with strong production and moderate demand expected to drive robust early season injections.  

Platts is calling for a cumulative build of 245 BCF over the next 3 reports, roughly 80 BCF above the 5 yr avg for the same period.   These projections reinforce a bearish near term outlook.

image 129743
Source: StoneX

image-20260413075100-2

Source: Bloomberg, CME

The May 26 natural gas contract traded down to a 2.628 low on Friday, nearly the exact level the spot contract bottomed in August 2025 at 2.622.

Early buying today has the May contract currently trading at 2.710 with an overnight low at 2.661.

The 10-day moving average which has held as daily high resistance the past two weeks is at 2.786 today followed by the 40-day average at 2.970.

A close above both averages is needed to turn the near-term and likely longer-term market trend back higher.

If 2.622-2.628 support is broken, 2.500 will become the next area of support.  Longer term support is a two-year trend line which marked the 2025 spot contract low at 2.622.  This trend line is currently near 2.400.

Moving Average Alignment - Bearish

Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish 

Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish

Relative Strength Index - 39.92

image 129722

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 129721

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 129720

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 129059

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

image 129058

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

Forward Curve Pricing

image 129719

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Disclaimer
(1)  The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
 

  • Energy

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.


The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.


References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.


StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.


StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.


StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).


SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.


StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.


StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.


StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.


Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.


The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.


1. PRECIPICE DISCLAIMER: This communication includes data and analytics supplied by Precipice Analytics. StoneX does not own, control, create, or author this data and has not independently verified its accuracy. StoneX does not endorse its use for anything other than informational purposes. You are advised that Precipice Analytics technology may be protected by intellectual property and other rights that prohibit the unauthorized use and dissemination of the information contained herein.

2. MARKET INDICATOR DISCLAIMER: The StoneX Market Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity. The StoneX Market Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal. This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.

3. VALUE MATRIX DISCLAIMER: The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.


© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Related articles for Energy

The PM Commstock Report

Afternoon Market Review Includes - The cattle industry enters a critical year, with markets facing seasonal pressures, climate impacts, and the echoes of historical trends.

Commstock Investments
Commstock Investments
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Fertilizers
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Currencies

Oil Chart Patterns Reveal a Fragile Market Rally

Technical analysis remains highly relevant in crude oil markets, particularly when geopolitical headlines amplify volatility and investor sentiment. Brent crude's recent rally demonstrates how chart patterns and market psychology can help identify pivotal turning points before the next fundamental catalyst emerges.

Editorial Team
Editorial Team
  • Energy

Perspective: Morning Commentary for July 24

July 24 – Stock futures edged higher overnight, as traders focus on earnings reports, despite escalating tensions in the Middle East, Black Sea and in global trade. The VIX is trading near 19 this morning, while the dollar index trades near 101.5. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.34%. WTI crude oil pulled back to trade near $90 per barrel, while Brent trades near $98 per barrel, as traders take profits despite further escalation of the war ahead of the weekend. Grain and oilseed prices put in new highs for the move overnight, before breaking lower early this morning on signs of possible negotiations to reopen exports in the Black Sea Region.

Arlan Suderman
Arlan Suderman
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products
StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.