

Spot month prices rallied briefly Thursday after storage data came in lower than expected and lower than normal, narrowing the surplus for the first time in 5 weeks. Gains failed to hold into the close as uncertainties surrounding tariffs and trade policy came back into focus. The May contract ended nearly unchanged ahead of the 3 day weekend, settling 2 ticks lower at $3.245.

The EIA reported an injection of 16 BCF for the week ended April 11, leaving total gas in storage at 1.846 TCF. The addition was 30 BCF lower than last year’s build and 34 BCF below the 5 yr avg injection. Stocks are now 74 BCF below the 5 yr avg. Leading the build, stocks in the South Central region rose 15 BCF while inventories in the East fell 6 BCF.
Estimates for this week’s report covering the week ended Apr 18 suggest a build of 61 BCF versus last year’s build of 86 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 61 BCF. The following 2 reports are currently projected to show a combined build of 213 BCF, which is 76 BCF more than the 5 yr avg build for the same 2 week period.
Res/comm demand has been trending lower as temps turn more springlike, averaging 5.8 BCF/day lower last week. The market should continue to see muted heating needs through the end of April if forecasts showing widespread above normal readings prove correct. Res/comm usage is currently forecast at 16.3 BCF/day thru May 1, 3 BCF/day lower than the 5 yr avg for this time.
LNG feedgas demand has averaged 16.1 BCF/day this month, up 4.4 BCF/day from last year. Feedgas demand is pegged this morning at 15.4 BCF/day.

Prices have slid lower this morning with the May contract trading near 11 week lows as mild weather will keep demand at bay, allowing for strong injections.
Technical Analysis

The May 25 natural gas contract lost .282 (8%) in last week’s holiday-shortened trade closing Thursday at 3.245.
The spot contract has closed down 3 consecutive weeks and 5 out of the past 6 weeks as prices trend down in post-winter weakness.
The 38% retracement support of the 2024-2025 uptrend was broken last week at 3.380 turning the 61.8% retracement at 3.015 into the next downside objective.
The lower-3.000 area is also the 200 day moving average on the daily continuation chart at 3.060. It is also former “breakout” resistance and will be an important support area to watch, once reached.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 33.95






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