

Natural gas prices stabilized yesterday with prices holding near 5 month lows. The spot month contract finished Tuesday’s session near flat as lower output levels and improving LNG feedgas demand were offset by bearish weather forecasts and ongoing macroeconomic concerns. May futures settled .009 lower at $3.007.

Tomorrow’s storage covering the week ended Apr 18 is expected to show a build of 64 BCF. This compares to the 5 yr avg build of 58 BCF and last year’s build of 86 BCF. Last week’s supply/demand balance declined 9.6 BCF/day week over week as moderate temps led to easing demand levels. Res/comm usage fell 7 BCF/day while power sector demand fell 1.2 BCF/day. Adding to the looser balance, production levels rose 500 MMcf/day. Much larger, triple digit injections are projected for both the current week and next week.
LNG feedgas rebounded 0.8 BCF/day yesterday to 16 BCF/day. The increase was driven by increases at the Plaquemines and Sabine Pass terminals. Feedgas demand is a touch higher this morning at 16.1 BCF/day.
Spring pipeline maintenance is impacting production levels with output yesterday down 0.9 BCF/day at 105.8 BCF/day. A drop in Kinder Morgan’s Permian Highway gas pipe from the Permian basin in West TX to the TX Gulf Coast led the decline. Production levels are up a touch this morning at 105.9 BCF/day.

Prices are trading mixed this morning as moderate output levels and near record LNG feedgas demand are once again competing with mild weather forecasts that should allow for healthy injections heading into May.
Technical Analysis

The May 25 natural gas contract closed nearly unchanged following Monday’s sell off but very little buying enthusiasm showed after reaching a key area of support.
The key area of support reached Monday at the lower-3.000 area is the daily continuation chart 200 day moving average (3.065), the 50% retracement of the 2024-2025 uptrend (3.015), and previous “breakout” resistance, now support.
If lower-3.000 support does not hold, the 61.8% retracement at 2.655 will become the next downside objective.
The 200 day moving average at 3.065 is near term resistance with long term resistance being the 10 day moving average currently at 3.305.
Trend following indicators remain bearish and daily RSI at 30.48 remains above the 30 level considered “oversold”.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 30.48






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