

Following a 4 day decline, nat gas prices edged higher Wednesday despite mostly unchanged fundamentals. Support likely stemmed from easing macroeconomic concerns across broader markets. The May contract remains in oversold territory, settling 1.5 cents higher yesterday at $3.022.

Pipeline maintenance has weighed on output levels this week. Output fell to 105.9 BCF/day on Tuesday but has rebounded back to 106.6 BCF/day as of this morning. This is above the month to day average of 105.7 BCF/day.
This morning’s storage report is projected to show a build of 64 BCF for the week ended Apr 18. The estimate falls short of last year’s 86 BCF injection but would exceed the 5 yr avg build of 58 BCF. The estimate is well above the previous week’s build of 16 BCF as moderating temps last week pushed res/comm and power sector demand lower while output pushed higher. Mild weather heading into May is expected to keep weather demand depressed, resulting in a possible 100 BCF build for the week in progress.

Plaquemines received permission yesterday to introduce feedgas to a 10th liquefaction block, allowing the plant to flow gas to more than half of the full project. The remaining 8 units are expected to start up by the end of the year. The terminal was scheduled to receive 2.1 BCF/day of feedgas yesterday.
Upside strength is failing to hold as fundamentals remain unsupportive. The spot month is trading about 4% lower this morning ahead of what should be a bearish storage report.
Technical Analysis

The May 25 natural gas contract traded near unchanged for a 2nd day on Wednesday following Monday’s heavy sell off gaining .015 to close the day at 3.025.
The lower-3.000 area remains primary support. This area is the 50% retracement of the 2024-2025 uptrend, the 200 day moving average on the daily continuation chart, and former “breakout” resistance.
A close under 2.955 weekly low support will turn the 61.8% retracement at 2.655 into the next downside objective.
There has been almost no upside strength over the past two sessions with the 200 day moving average at 3.070 being primary resistance.
If 3.070 resistance is broken, the 10 day moving average at 3.220 will become the next area of resistance.
Trend following indicators remain bearish and daily RSI at 30.04 is just above the area considered “oversold”.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 30.04






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