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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 4-25-22

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
Price Summary table
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 4-Year price deciles

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Fundamentals & weather

Spot month gas prices continued to fall heading into the weekend following a larger than expected injection and less supportive weather outlooks.  The May contract settled ended Friday’s session 42.3 cents lower at $6.534.  For the week, prices shed more than 10%, marking the 1st weekly decline in 6 weeks.

 

       

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Last week’s injection of 53 BCF helped briefly ease storage concerns with stocks rising to 1.45 TCF.  The 5 yr avg deficit also narrowed to less than 17%.  The storage deficit however is not likely to alter much in the next couple of weeks.  Estimates for the week ended Apr 22 show a build of 24 BCF which compares to last year’s build of 18 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 53 BCF. 

                            

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Weather outlooks for May also moderated with the NWS showing a 33-50% chance of below normal temps for the Midwest.  Temps across the NE and NW are expected to be near normal while temps in the SE have up to a 50% of averaging warmer than normal.

 

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Prices are trading higher this morning as temps will turn hilly over the next week across the Midwest.  The cool conditions will spread into the East mid week, causing a near term increase in heating demand.

Demand is already starting to rise from the weekend, coming in 3.8 BCF higher on the day at 87.7 BCF.  Demand over the next week will average 89.3 BCF/day and will then fall down to 85.2 BCF/day over the 8-14 day period.

Technical Analysis
 
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The May 22 natural gas contract was heavily sold in late trade on Friday losing .423 or 6.1% for the session to close the day at 6.534. 

For the week, the May contract was down .766 or 10.5% closing Friday 1.530 or 19% below the weekly high set on Monday.  It was also the 1st lower weekly close in the past 6 weeks.

Friday’s daily close under the 10 day moving average was the 1st daily close under this average since March 15th turning the near term trend back down.

 

38.2% retracement support of the December-April uptrend was nearly reached at 6.290 overnight with the current low at 6.340.

If 6.290 support is broken, the 50% retracement at 5.740 will become the next longer term support.

6.700 is near term resistance followed by the 10 day moving average at 6.960.

Volume fell sharply from 236,995 contracts on Tuesday to just 80,599 on Friday with current open interest for the May contract at 20,132.  Volatility may increase even further into Wednesday’s expiration for the May contract.

Technical Indicators: 

Moving Average Alignment – Neutral - Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 56.92

Options Table & Strip Pricing
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Forward Curve Pricing
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