

Spot month gas prices resumed their slide Thursday after storage data proved more bearish than expected, implying a much looser supply/demand balance last week. Prices started the session lower with losses accelerating following the report. Prices recovered slightly midday but maintained losses into the close. May futures settled 9.2 cents lower at $2.93.

Outpacing expectations by 24 BCF, the EIA reported an injection of 88 BCF for the week ended Apr 18. The build also exceeded historical comparisons, helping narrow the deficit. Total gas in storage stands at 1.934 TCF, 44 BCF below the 5 yr avg and 478 BCF below last year. A week over week drop of 7 BCF/day in res/comm usage contributed to the larger build while production levels were likely stronger than estimated.
Mild weather will remain the theme over the coming weeks. The next 15 days are forecast to total 80.2 HDDs which ranks 2nd warmest for the period while CDDs will remain minimal at 40.3.
A lack of weather related demand for the coming 3 weeks is driving expectations for a total build of 338 BCF, significantly more than the 5 yr avg build of 220 BCF for the same period. For the week in progress, a build of 99 BCF is expected, well above last year and the 5 yr avg builds of 64 BCF and 58 BCF, respectively.

Prices are currently trading higher with the May contract up about 2 cents ahead of Monday's expiration.
Technical Analysis

The May 25 natural gas contract is on course for a 4th consecutive lower weekly close after losing .315 (9.7%) so far in this week’s trade.
After closing at 2.930 on Thursday, the first close under the 3.000 level since mid-November 2024, the May contract is down again in today’s early trade.
Thursday’s 2.858 low is near term support followed by 2.655, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2024-2025 uptrend.
Daily RSI is now under the 30 level which is considered technically “oversold”. While not an outright buy signal, it is a warning the trend is becoming stretched. That said, oversold conditions can sometimes persist longer than expected.
2.950-2.960 is near term resistance followed by the daily continuation chart 200 day moving average at 3.075.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 28.81






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