

Spot month gas prices sank below $4 on Friday as the market began to factor in tariff uncertainties and mounting trade tensions. Loosening fundamentals further contributed to the downward momentum. Escalating trade tensions, particularly China’s announcement of retaliatory tariffs against the US, had a broad impact on global financial markets. This triggered significant declines seen across US equities and commodity markets. May NG settled 30.1 cents lower at $3.837. For the week, the contract lost about 6%.

Nat gas drilling rigs fell by 7 last week to 96 total rigs, the lowest level since Sept. This marked the biggest weekly decline since May 2023.
Production has rebounded from last week, coming in this morning at 106.5 BCF/day.
Feedgas demand is also showing an improvement from last week's levels. LNG exports hit 16.6 BCF/day over the weekend and are estimated this morning at 16.3 BCF/day.
US LNG exports could be impacted by retaliatory measures from countries that are being hit by the latest round of tariffs. Countries impacted by the new tariffs that are regular buyers of US LNG may threaten to cut those purchases as part of possible reprisals. On the flipside, countries looking to narrow their trade surplus with the US could scale up US LNG purchases.

The market will contend with more cooler than normal temps and steady heating demand this week across the Midwest and East with most neutral weather conditions elsewhere. Forecasts this morning indicate warmer conditions will dominate nearly the entire US by mid April. Demand estimates are factoring in the warm up with heating demand projected to decline by 10 BCF/day during the 8-14 day period.
Technical Analysis

The May 25 natural gas contract was heavily sold in Friday’s session breaking out under 10 and 40 day moving average support at the lower-4.000 area to close the day at 3.837.
For the day, the May contract was down .301 (7.3%). For the week, the contract was down .228 (5.6%).
Prices have rebounded in today’s early trade after bottoming out at a 3.680 overnight low which coincides with the 3.689 low set two weeks ago.
The 10 and 40 day moving averages broken as support on Friday are now primary resistance. The 10 day average is at 3.970 today followed by the 40 day average at 4.030. 10 and 40 day moving average alignment is now bearish.
The 3.680-3.689 double bottom low is primary support. If broken, the 38% retracement of the 2024-2025 uptrend at 3.380 will become the next longer term support for the May contract.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 46.60






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