

Spot month gas prices posted sharp gains ahead of the weekend, rising nearly 6% on lower output and a recovery in feedgas flows from earlier in the week. The June contract settled 20.3 cents higher at $3.795. For the week, prices ended 16.5 cents higher.

Record heat in Texas this week along with warmer than normal temps across the entire eastern 2/3 of the US will boost power burn. The current level of 29.3 BCF/day is expected to rise to an avg of 32.9 BCF/day over the next week. The heat will break down across the northern US during the 6-10 day period with readings turning lower than normal, helping reduce cooling needs.
By the end of last week, LNG feedgas flows recovered from the early week low of 12.6 BCF/day. Flows on Friday were estimated at 15.3 BCF/day, with feedgas demand rising to 16.1 BCF/day over the weekend. As of this morning, flows are slightly lower at 15.7 BCF/day.
Production levels remain neutral with output on Friday at 105.8 BCF/day, according to Platts. This was an improvement from early week levels of 104.3 BCF/day. Production over the weekend rose to 106.3 BCF/day but is back down this morning at 105.5 BCF/day.
The nat gas rig count was unchanged last week at 101 rigs while oil drilling rigs fell by 5 to 474 rigs. Drillers cut 2 oil rigs in the Permian, leaving the rig count there at its lowest since Jan 2021. The combined oil and gas rig count is currently at its lowest since January and is 4% lower than last year.

Prices have trading lower this morning with the spot month down more than 14 cents. More choppy, sideways trade is expected as fundamentals remain mixed.
Technical Analysis

The June 25 natural gas contract trended higher for a 2nd week in last week’s trade gaining .165 (4.5%) over the 5 days of trade to close Friday at 3.795.
The June contract broke out above the 38% retracement resistance of the March-April downtrend at 3.640 last week and also closed above the 40 day moving average on Friday.
The 50% retracement at 3.880 is the next area of resistance with longer term resistance at 4.000 and the 61.8% retracement at 4.120.
Trend following indicators continue to show bearish divergences with lower index highs being posted as prices trend higher. While not an outright sell signal, it may indicate a near term pullback is coming.
The 40 day moving average is near term support at 3.620 followed closely by the 10 day average at 3.565.
Trade should remain choppy and volatile with prices likely to remain in a sideways to higher range.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index - 58.00






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