

A third straight triple digit storage injection accelerated early losses yesterday. The build was also larger than normal, helping narrow the year over year deficit while widening the 5 yr avg surplus. The latest 6-10 day weather forecast suggests more impressive builds are likely in the coming weeks. June futures settled 13 cents lower at $3.362.

Storage levels rose 110 BCF during the week ended May 9, leaving total gas in storage at 2.255 TCF. The build was in line with expectations but was extremely bearish compared to historical numbers. Stocks are now 57 BCF above the 5 yr avg and 375 BCF below last year. Since late April, stocks have risen by a total of 320 BCF.
Looking at the week in progress, a bump in consumption and lower dry output have so far caused the market to tighten by an estimated 2.7 BCF/day. While this implies a smaller build for the week ending May 16, estimates currently suggest a larger build than last week, ranging from 115 to 135 BCF.
Weather outlooks for the next 10 days lean very bearish with the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and the entire eastern seaboard are projected to average lower than normal. The current heat across Texas is also expected to moderate with temps turning more seasonal. The West should see a warm up from the current below normal readings.
Total demand over the next 7 days is estimated at 97.4 BCF/day. Power burn is forecast to retreat about 3.6 BCF/day while res/comm usage will rise by 3 BCF/day from current levels.

Early session losses have dried up with the spot month currently trading 7 cents higher on the day. A recovery in LNG feedgas demand to 15.2 BCF today from Thursday’s 14.4 BCF/day is supportive.
Technical Analysis

After topping out at a 3.840 high on Monday, the spot June 25 natural gas contract has been heavily sold settling Thursday at 3.362.
For the week, the June contract is currently down .443 or 11.4% heading into today’s trade.
Several important areas of support have been broken this week turning the near term trend down.
Daily continuation chart 10 and 40 day moving average support was broken on Wednesday near the 3.600 level followed by 3.400-3.410 on Thursday.
The next longer term support areas are the 200 day moving average at 3.175 followed by the 2.859 April low. A close under the April low is needed to turn the longer term trend down.
The most likely scenario is for prices to remain in a sideways range similar to the past 6 months with choppy, volatile trade as the market heads into the summer cooling season.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index - 44.50






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