

Spot month gas prices surged ahead of the weekend following rebounding export demand, early season heat in Texas, Thursday’s bullish miss in storage data as well as short covering.
Operations at export terminals along the Gulf Coast avoided significant disruptions after severe storms swept thru the region last Thursday. The lack of disruption along with only a small impact on gas fired power demand helped maintain upward momentum. June futures settled Friday’s session 13.1 cents higher at $2.626. For the week, prices rose 17%, which follows the previous week’s 5% gain.

Output levels are averaging 99.5 BCF/day so far this month, 2.7 BCF/day below year ago levels. Output trended higher over the weekend but continues to vacillate right around 99 BCF/day. Platts estimates output this morning right at 99 BCF/day, down 0.4 BCF/day from Sunday.
After closing higher the past 3 weeks in a row, the question is now whether the rally will bring back any output.
After trending lower into the back half of last week, total demand picked up over the weekend. Lower usage late last week occurred as both res/comm and power burn both declined. Total demand this morning is up 1.3 BCF/day at 91.9 BCF/day. We should see a pick up in weather related demand over the next 2 weeks with Maxar calling for a total of 93.1 CDDs which is above normal and would rank 10th highest for the period.
LNG feedgas demand came in near 12.9 BCF/day on Friday, up 500 MMcf on the day. LNG flows this morning are estimated at 12.9 BCF/day. Platts estimates flows will remain near this levels over the next 2 weeks.

The market is extending its rally this morning on expectations for stronger cooling demand over the next 2 weeks. Much of the rally continues to be focused on near term contracts.

The June 24 natural gas contract has closed up three consecutive weeks breaking out above 200 day moving average resistance last week on the daily continuation chart.
For the week, the June contract was up .374 (16.5%) closing Friday at 2.626, a new 2024 spot contract high.
The 61.8% retracement of the 2024 downtrend has been reached overnight at 2.660. If buying continues, the 78% retracement at 2.970 will become the next upside objective.
The 200 day moving average broken as resistance last week is now primary support at 2.455 followed by the 10 day moving average at 2.390.
Daily RSI is at 77.46, in an area considered “overbought”. Bearish divergences also continue to form on the 60-minute chart.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index -77.23(in overbought area)






This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by the FCM Division of StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) (NFA ID: 0476094) or StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”) (NFA ID: 0449652) and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
All references to and discussion of OTC products or swaps are made solely on behalf of SXM. All references to futures and options on futures trading are made solely on behalf of SFI. SXM products are intended to be traded only by individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
SFI and SXM are not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from SFI or SXM for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences.
(1) The StoneX Market Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity. The StoneX Market Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal. This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Reproduction or use in any format without authorization is forbidden. © Copyright 2024. All rights reserved.




