

Nat gas prices fell on Tuesday as output cuts appear to have tapered off while Golden Pass LNG export terminal is likely to see a delay in its commencement. Profit taking further added to yesterday’s losses as did expectations for slightly fewer cooling degree days over the next 2 weeks. June futures fell 8 cents to settle at $2.671.

Tomorrow’s injection is expected to come in below average for a 4th straight week. Platts is calling for a build of 86 BCF while Refinitiv projects a build of 89 BCF. While estimates are higher week over week, they would still fall behind both last year’s 97 BCF injection and the 5 yr avg injection of 92 BCF. Fundamentals loosened slightly last week with res/comm demand down 1.5 BCF/day and power burn down 1.2 BCF/day. LNG feedgas demand rose about 200 MMcf/day while output rose 400 MMcf/day.
The startup of the Golden Pass LNG export terminal is likely to be delayed as Zachry Holdings, the lead contractor building the export terminal, filed for bankruptcy yesterday. The project is currently 75% complete with work expected to be completed by the remaining 2 contractors. Production at Golden Pass was expected to begin in the first half of 2025. A further delay could tighten LNG global supply as the terminal will have a peak capacity of about 18.1 MMT/year.

Summerlike heat and humidity will continue in Texas over the coming days while unseasonable warmth is projected across the East for the remainder of the week.

The June 24 natural gas contract rallied up to a 2.798 high in Tuesday’s early trade but lost ground into the close ending the session at 2.671, down .080.
A potentially bearish dark cloud cover Japanese candlestick formed on Tuesday’s daily bar which will need lower trade today for confirmation.
The market has been in a relentless rally higher over the past three weeks with bearish divergences forming on the 60-minute chart oscillators pointing toward a downside correction. Daily RSI has also been trading in the area considered “overbought”.
2.660 support has been broken in today’s session turning 2.485 (10 day moving average) and 2.455 (200 day moving average) into the next primary support.
If 10 and 200 day moving average support is reached and broken, the 38.2% retracement of the recent uptrend at 2.295 will become the next area of support.
Tuesday’s 2.798 is near term resistance followed by 2.970, the 78% retracement of the 2024 downtrend.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index -74.58 (in overbought area)






This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by the FCM Division of StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) (NFA ID: 0476094) or StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”) (NFA ID: 0449652) and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
All references to and discussion of OTC products or swaps are made solely on behalf of SXM. All references to futures and options on futures trading are made solely on behalf of SFI. SXM products are intended to be traded only by individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
SFI and SXM are not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from SFI or SXM for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences.
(1) The StoneX Market Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity. The StoneX Market Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal. This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Reproduction or use in any format without authorization is forbidden. © Copyright 2024. All rights reserved.




