

Nat gas futures reversed a portion of Tuesday’s gains yesterday as the market turned its focus back toward neutral to bearish fundamentals. Stronger demand stemming from warmer than normal temps across the South Central and SE is being offset by lower demand across the North, where temps are averaging cooler than normal. The market is also expecting to see a 4th straight triple digit build in today’s report. June NG settled 5.9 cents lower at $3.368.

Weather this month has yet to spark a sustained increase in cooling demand, allowing for a string of above normal injections. This trend is expected to continue through the week ending May 23. Today’s report is projected to show stocks rose 115 BCF for the week ended May 16. This compares to last year’s build of 78 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 87 BCF. If correct, stocks would rise to 2.37 TCF. Early estimates for the week in progress range from a build of 79 BCF to 124 BCF with most expecting an increase of 97 BCF.
LNG feedgas demand came in yesterday at 15.5 BCF/day and is estimated this morning at 14.9 BCF/day. Platts expects feedgas demand to average 15 BCF/day over the next 2 weeks.
Freeport LNG has received permission to return to service the final LNG storage tank that has been offline since Jun 2022. The return however is not expected to result in a significant near term increase at Freeport.

Exports to Mexico remain strong, holding flat today at 7.7 BCF. Month to date, exports to Mexico are averaging 7 BCF/day, which is up 0.4 BCF/day from May 2024.
Prices are trading lower ahead of storage data while weather outlooks also remain unsupportive.
Technical Analysis

The June 25 natural gas contract turned back down on Wednesday following Tuesday’s 10% gain losing .059 (1.7%) to close at 3.368.
Yesterday’s weakness came after the June contract failed to clear 10 and 40 day moving average resistance keeping the market in a sideways to lower range.
Weekly low support is at 3.090-3.100 followed by the April 2.859 low. A close under the April low will turn the longer term trend back down.
10 day moving average resistance is at 2.450 today followed by the 40 day average at 2.500.
A close above both averages will turn the near term trend back up but prices are expected to remain in a sideways range as the summer cooling season begins.
Trade should remain choppy and volatile.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 45.90






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