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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 5-23-25

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
 
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division Heather.Wine@stonex.com 
StoneX Value Matrix
image-20250523085919-1
Source: StoneX Value Matrix (2), Bloomberg
StoneX Commodity Indicator
image-20250523091302-2
 
Source:  StoneX Commodity Indicator (1), Bloomberg
Fundamentals & Weather

Another larger than normal injection, marking the 9th in the past 10 weeks, kept prices under pressure Thursday.  This has allowed inventories to swing from a 230 BCF deficit at the end of winter to a now 90 BCF surplus.  Depressed LNG exports and neutral weather conditions added to yesterday’s downward momentum.  June futures settled 11.5 cents lower at $3.253. The July contract remains in contango to June, trading at a .38 cent premium with forecasters expecting a hotter than normal summer across the entire country.  

image 113146
Source: Bloomberg, CME

Marking a 4th straight triple digit build, the EIA reported a 120 BCF injection for the week ended May 16, leaving total gas in storage at 2.375 TCF.  The number outpaced historical comparisons, widening the 5 yr avg surplus to 90 BCF while narrowing the year over year deficit to 333 BCF. The build helped erase deficits to the 5 yr avg in both the East and South Central regions while stocks in the Midwest still sit at a slight deficit.

The week in progress could see a smaller injection given a tightening in the market by about 5 BCF/day week over week. Estimates currently from a build of 85 BCF to 125 BCF. 

image 113147​​​​
Source: Bloomberg

 

Near term weather forecasts are mostly unsupportive as warmer than normal temps remain confined to Florida and the western half of the country while below normal conditions dominate the South Central, SE and Midcon regions. Weather Desk’s forecast for June continues to show above normal temps from the West Coast to the Central US with warmer readings also likely across the East Coast.   Their forecast for 275 CDDs ranks 9th hottest. 

 

​​image 113148
Source: Bloomberg

Total demand is down 2.6 BCF/day this morning at 99.4 BCF/day with power burn down 2 BCF/day and res/comm demand down 0.5 BCF/day. Estimates from Platts show total demand will fall to an average of 97.8 BCF/day next week with a further drop off during the 8-14 day period to 97.1 BCF/day.   

Prices are currently trading higher ahead of the long weekend and June NG expiration on May 28.

Technical Analysis

 

image-20250523091435-3
Source: Bloomberg, CME

The June 25 natural gas contract sold off for a 2nd day on Thursday losing .115 (3.4%) to close at 3.253.

Just over 50% of the gains made during Tuesday’s rally higher have been erased over the past two sessions as the June contract tests 200 day moving average support at 3.210 in today’s early trade.

If 200 day moving average support is broken, weekly low support is at 3.098 followed by the April 2.859 low.  

 

The 10 and 40 day moving averages held as daily high resistance on Tuesday’s rally keeping the market in a sideways to lower range.

10 day moving average resistance is at 3.390 today followed by the 40 day average at 3.480.

Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish

Relative Strength Index - 44.08

image 113149
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 113150
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 113151
Source: Bloomberg, CME
image 112353
Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)
image 112352
Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)
Forward Curve Pricing
image 113152
Source: Bloomberg, CME
 
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