

Early losses faded Friday morning with nat gas prices turning positive ahead of the long holiday weekend. Position squaring ahead of this week’s expiration along with forecasts for temps to turn warmer heading into June provided support. Tomorrow’s expiring June contract settled 8.1 cents higher at $3.334. For the week, prices settled less than 1% lower.

Production levels hit 106.1 BCF/day on Friday and maintained that level throughout the long weekend. Output this morning is estimated at 105.6 BCF/day. Month to date, production is averaging 105.7BCF/day which is up 4.8 BCF/day from last year.
The nat gas rig count fell by 2 last week to a total of 98 rigs, down 1 rig from last year. Oil drilling rigs fell by 8 rigs to a total of 465 rigs. This is the lowest oil drilling rig count since Nov 2021 as producers continue to react to low oil prices.
Consumption levels have fallen since Friday’s total of 99.2 BCF/day as both power burn and res/comm demand have declined. Total demand this morning is estimated at 94.9 BCF/day. Platts projects steady demand over the next week, averaging 94.8 BCF/day while usage rises to an average of 98.2 BCF/day during the 8-14 day period.

Weather Desk is projecting 97.5 CDDs over the next 15 days, which falls between the 10 and 30 yr averages. The forecast is cooler versus last year, which totaled 105.5 CDDS. Changes over the weekend included hotter conditions over the West and cooler conditions from the South to East Coast for the coming 5 days. The 6-10 and 11-15 day periods turned cooler for the West and warmer for the Eastern US.
Prices are mixed this morning with the spot trading higher while the July contract forward is trading lower.
Technical Analysis

No change in the June 25 natural gas contract last week as it closed Friday at the exact same level it closed the previous week at 3.334.
The June contract which expires on tomorrow’s close has been consolidating in a sideways range over the past week alternating between the 200 day moving average as support and the 40 day moving average as resistance.
A close under daily continuation chart 200 day moving average support at 3.215 today will turn last week’s 3.098 low into the next area of support followed by the 2.859 April low.
40 day moving average resistance is at 3.460 today. A close above this average will turn the near term trend back up with 3.840 and 4.000 becoming the next area of resistance.
The trend following indicators are mixed but 10 and 40 day moving average alignment is bearish.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 46.65






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