

Spot month gas prices surged 5% on Friday with gains for the week were a record 33% as feedgas flows to export facilities, particularly at Freeport, increased. Forecasts for hotter weather in Texas also boosted expectations for stronger power generation demand while production cuts are starting to help rebalance the market. June nat gas settled 10.7 cents higher Friday at $2.142.

Production levels have been hovering near 100 BCF/day, averaging 99.3 BCF/day so far this month. This is down 3.3 BCF/day from May 2023’s average of 102.6 BCF/day. Platts shows output this morning at 97.5 BCF/day, down 2.2 BCF/day from Monday’s 99.7 BCF/day. Platts estimates production over the next week averaging 99.2 BCF/day with the 8-14 day period seeing an average of 99.8 BCF/day.
Nearly 1.4 BCF/day of feedgas was delivered to Freeport on Sunday, the highest flows to the facility since early March. Freeport was scheduled to receive 1.2 BCF/day on Monday, marking the 3rd consecutive day that feedgas demand exceeded 1 BCF/day. Increased flows to Freeport boosted overall feedgas demand to an average of 12.3 BCF/day over the first 6 days of May.
Total demand for today is estimated at 95.8 BCF/day, up 1.9 BCF/day due to a 1.4 BCF/day increase in power burn.

Prices continue higher this morning amid curbed gas production, returning flows to Freeport and rising temps in Texas and the Southeast.

The June 24 natural gas contract has closed higher the past three days gaining .053 on Monday to close the day at 2.195.
There should be strong selling resistance at the mid-December 2.235 low extending up to the January 2.311 low with the June contract topping out Monday at a 2.265 high.
Longer term resistance from the daily continuation chart is at 2.400-2.410, the top of an open gap from late-January, followed closely by the 200 day moving average at 2.465.
2.050-2.060 is near term support followed by the 10 day moving average at 1.940.
Key support remains 1.900-1.910 which is contract low support for the June contract and the top of an open gap on the daily continuation chart. If 1.900 support is broken, the bottom of the gap at 1.600 will become the next downside objective.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index -66.72






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