

Natural gas traded lower Tuesday amid depressed LNG feedgas and weather related demand. An unconfirmed outage at Freeport LNG also fed into yesterday’s price drop. Keeping the downside limited, production levels were on track to fall towards 10 week lows. The June contract settled 8.7 cents lower at $3.463.

Another triple digit injection of 102 BCF is expected in tomorrow’s storage report. A build this size would be 23 BCF higher than the 5 yr avg build of 79 BCF and would exceed last year’s build of 81 BCF. If correct, stocks would rise to 2.143 TCF, leaving the 5 yr avg surplus at 28 BCF while narrowing the year over year deficit to 414 BCF. For the week in progress, estimates range from a build of 95 BCF to as much as 130 BCF.
In its latest STEO, the EIA estimates stocks will end injection season at 3.67 TCF, down from their January estimate of 3.72 TCF.
Freeport LNG is expected to be back in service today after all 3 liquefaction trains shut down yesterday morning because of a power feed interruption. Yesterday’s outage contributed to the downside, with gas flows at Freeport registering just 0.3 BCF/day, leaving overall feedgas demand at 12.5 BCF/day. Flows at Freeport are back up this morning, on track to reach 1.8 BCF/day. This has helped push prices back up, elevating total gas flows to 14.1 BCF/day.

Production levels continue to ease, estimated this morning at 104.1 BCF/day. This is lower than the current month to date average of 104.6 BCF/day. Production levels are reflecting scaled back activity as crude oil prices have tumbled while overall demand has declined. The EIA projects dry gas output will rise this year from 103.2 BCF/day last year to 104.9 BCF/day in 2025.
The spot month is currently trading 13 cents higher.
Technical Analysis

The spot June 25 natural gas contract has closed down the past two sessions following a failed breakout attempt above daily continuation chart 40 day moving average resistance on Monday.
After closing Tuesday’s session at 3.463, down .087, prices have reversed back higher in today's session.
Trend following indicators remains mixed including moving average alignment and the short and term long term indexes offering no clear technical direction.
40 day moving average resistance is at 3.650 today followed by Monday’s 3.747 high.
A breakout above both areas of resistance will turn 3.790-3.800 and 4.000 into the next areas of resistance.
10 day moving average support at 3.345 followed by the 200 day average at 3.125
Longer term support is the 2.859 low set two weeks ago. A breakout under this support will turn the trend back down.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index - 53.70






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