

Another hefty storage build capped gains yesterday with the spot month settling 1.5 cents lower at $3.492. Prices were trading higher prior to the report but the rapid increase in supplies halted the upside. Weather demand also remained depressed with production levels flat on the day.

In line with expectations, a 7th straight triple digit injection of 109 BCF was reported yesterday for the week ended June 6. Over these past 7 weeks, stocks have risen by 773 BCF with inventories growing 934 BCF since injection season began. Total gas in storage currently stands at 2.707 BCF, 139 BCF above the 5 yr avg and 256 BCF below last year. The 5 yr avg surplus is now the widest since Jan 3 while the year over year deficit is at its narrowest since February.
Another larger than normal build is expected for the week in progress, although the string of triple digit injections could be over. Injection estimates range from 85 to 99 BCF, which would still outpace the 5 yr avg build and last year’s build of 72 BCF each.
LNG feedgas demand rose Thursday to 14.9 BCF/day with deliveries to Cameron LNG up for a 2nd straight day. Rising about 0.2 BCF day over day, the terminal received about 2 BCF/day yesterday, marking the highest level of feedgas flows since Apr 30. Maintenance continues at Sabine Pass with feedgas demand there hovering near 3 BCF/day. Flows at Plaquemines however have been on the rise with the terminal scheduled to receive 2.8 BCF/day yesterday. Total feedgas demand is lower this morning at an estimated 14.2 BCF/day amid day over day declines at the Cameron and Corpus Christi terminals.

Risk premium is being added to energy markets this morning after Israeli strikes on Iran sparked concerns over supply. The biggest fear is a possible blockage of the Strait of Hormuz through which 20% of global LNG travels.
The spot month contract is currently trading up 6 cents.
Technical Analysis

The July 25 natural gas contract closed slightly lower on Thursday losing .025 to settle the day at 3.492.
For a 2nd day on Thursday, the July contract tested daily continuation chart 10 day moving average resistance on early strength which held.
With resistance holding, prices sunk lower into the close settling near the 3.500 area.
The July contract also tested 3.450 support for a 2nd day on Thursday which held.
The 10 day moving average was tested again overnight and held for a 3rd day keeping prices in a sideways range.
A breakout above the 10 day average at 3.630 today will turn last week’s 3.817 high into the next area of resistance.
However, the short term trend following index is now bearish and moving average alignment has turned neutral-bullish with this week’s breakout under 10 day moving average support. This may indicate further weakness ahead.
3.450 is near term support followed closely by the 40 day moving average at 3.425.
A breakout under the 40 day average will turn the 200 day average at 3.310 into the next area of support.
The 2026 strip has been holding under trend line resistance throughout this week which could also indicate of impending weakness. 4.000 is near term support.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 50.81






This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by the FCM Division of StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) (NFA ID: 0476094) or StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”) (NFA ID: 0449652) and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
All references to and discussion of OTC products or swaps are made solely on behalf of SXM. All references to futures and options on futures trading are made solely on behalf of SFI. SXM products are intended to be traded only by individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
SFI and SXM are not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from SFI or SXM for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences.
(1) The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity. The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal. This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Reproduction or use in any format without authorization is forbidden. © Copyright 2024. All rights reserved.




