

Spot month nat gas started yesterday’s trade lower with losses accelerating following weekly storage data. While last week’s build was in line with estimates, prices were pressured by upward revisions to past weeks’ builds in yesterday’s EIA report. July futures settled 8.6 cents lower at $2.959.

The EIA reported a 74 BCF injection for the week ended June 7, marking the 5th straight lower than normal injection. The EIA also revised higher working gas stocks for the 5 week period from May 3 to May 31, reflecting resubmissions of data during that period. Inventories rose an additional 7 BCF as a result, leaving total gas in storage at 2.974 TCF as of June 7. With the build trailing historical figures, the year over year surplus shrank to 364 BCF while the 5 yr avg surplus narrowed to 573 BCF, down from its peak of 678 during the week ended Mar 15.
Fundamentals have loosened slightly this week with demand down about 300 MMcf/day while output has averaged about 99.4 BCF/day. Storage estimates for the week in progress suggest a build in the 68-79 BCF range. This compares to the year ago injection of 92 BCF and the 5 yr avg injection of 83 BCF.
A heatwave is expected to strike the Midwest and East next week, pushing highs into the 90s and possibly close to 100 degrees in some areas. Record temps are forecast for some regions, including Chicago while record warm lows are also expected to be set. While widespread warmth is expected over the next 2 weeks, the Gulf Coast and NW are exceptions with readings there expected to be closer to normal during the 11-15 day period. Overall, the next 15 days are forecast to rank hottest on record with a total of 193.4 CDDs expected, up from the current record of 164.9 CDDs back in 1994.

Gas prices extend their slide this morning as the market continues to price in storage data revisions while there is speculation that the imminent heatwave could prompt an upswing in production levels.

The July 24 natural gas contract closed down for a 2nd day on Thursday losing .086 to settle at 2.959 while holding above a key area of support.
This support at the 2.860-2.880 area is 60-mite chart trend line support, 7-month resistance broken last week and the 10 day moving average on the daily continuation chart.
If support continues to hold, retest of the 3.159 weekly high set on Tuesday should follow.
A close under 2.860-2.880 will turn the near term trend back down with 2.600 becoming the next area of support. Longer term 200 day moving average support is currently at 2.465.
Thursday’s volume was heavy for a 9th consecutive day at 209,730 contracts.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index -61.41






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